Wanganui trainer Kevin Myers prepares Kick Back and no one knows more about the timing of the development of jumping talent.
The mare came off an eye-popping maiden victory at Te Aroha and two weeks later on the same track ran past the leaders in the closing stages as though she had just joined in.
There is no way of knowing just how good she is, but it's certainly good enough to beat this field.
The ranks of maiden hurdlers is strong this winter, including I'll'ava'alf, Shamal, Zavamar and Le Bon Fin. Each looks capable of progressing through the ranks with time.
Shamal failed to justify his favouritism at Trentham last week, fading out, but the track was just too wet.
The footing tomorrow, even though likely to be wet, will be a lot easier to get through than last week's wet cement. Shamal and I'll'ava'alf, who had more than handy form as a flat galloper, should have a good tussle in the opening event.
Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman don't present many jumpers, but in Zavamar they have one who could make the grade. He was beaten in the last couple of strides at Te Aroha last start, just his second jumping start.
He can go one better this time and it should be an interesting race among him, Le Bon Fin and debut jumper The Shackler.
Kevin Myers produces Gagarin in the restricted open hurdles. Gagarin's form is not as dramatic as his stablemate Kick Back, but with two wins and three placings from six hurdling starts he is building a nice record.
This (Race 3) looks a great betting vehicle with Boy, D'Llaro and Maharishi all commanding respect.
Heavy rain is forecast for after lunch tomorrow, which might torpedo the chances of Barbaric in the main sprint.
He could not manage the heavy footing in a similar race at the past Te Rapa meeting and although this line-up looks easier there is doubt about his ability to handle the conditions.
Which should leave the race between Airfield Road, surprisingly the TAB's rank outsider when Final Field odds were posted for Race 9 yesterday, Aaja Nachle and Guevara.
The pair of 2-year-old races have one horse in each that has won a race and they are certain to dominate betting.
Makarios looked good winning on debut at Matamata in conditions that suggest he will never have problems with winter tracks.
Even more stylish was the effort, also on debut, of Duke Of Millfield winning on his home track at Te Aroha.
He looked no chance to win 220m out in that race, but simply powered his way to the finish to eclipse the opposition. He looks to have a touch of class, racing in the colours that made Indikator a crowd pleaser.
The wide barrier here late in the programme could be an advantage.
Backing a winner
Deserves one: Palace Talk (R4, Te Rapa). Has done everything but win one in five starts and gets her chance to break through here.
Might not be just a mudder: (Duke Of Millfield, R8, Te Rapa). Stylish debut winner at Te Aroha. Looks better than just a winter galloper.
Better weighted: (Sono Veloce, R11, Te Rapa). Terrific second under 59kg this track last start and looks well placed with a 3kg apprentice allowance
