KEY POINTS:
David Butcher may have snuffed out the last breath of hope Changeover's rivals had heading into tonight's $150,000 New Zealand Derby.
Butcher will partner the champion 3-year-old pacer, who will start close to a $1.40 favourite in the classic after a remarkable past month.
In that time Changeover has easily beaten Aussie hero Lombo Pocket Watch in the Woodlands Northern Derby before his own arch-rival Fergiemack was tragically found dead in his spelling paddock.
That left Gotta Go Cullen looking like Changeover's only real adversary for the remaining age group feature this season and Gotta Go Cullen went a shocker as Changeover strolled to victory in last Friday's Flying Stakes.
Then when Changeover drew one in the Derby and Gotta Go Cullen drew 13 the race looked as good as over.
But wait, Butcher has one more nail to drive into the coffin of his opponent's hopes.
"I think he needed that run last week so he should be better this week," he says matter-of-factly.
Considering Changeover beat most of the favourites in tonight's race easily last Friday, and the fact he should lead over a more suitable 2600m mobile tonight, he looks the closest thing to we have had to a certainty in a New Zealand Derby since Courage Under Fire in 1999.
While Changeover was awesome winning the Woodlands Derby on March 2 he has always looked more comfortable left-handed, particularly at Addington where his long stride flows more smoothly.
With the improvement in fitness Butcher predicts from last week his only minor concern will be holding the lead in the early rush - if that even eventuates.
Often in age group racing when one horse is as dominant as Changeover has become their reputations lead to hollow victories after unchallenged leads.
There may be enough gate speed outside him to suggest at least one rival driver will have a crack at crossing Changeover at the start, but Butcher was unfazed.
"Last week I didn't ask him to leave the gate hard and the two that did didn't beat him out by that much so I think he will hold them if I want to," he says.
"But even if he did get crossed then I think there would be the room to get off.
"I am not planning anything though, I'll just drive it as I see it on the night."
For all the talent of his rivals it is hard to see any of them working wide while Changeover hugs the marker pegs and then still having the energy to challenge, let alone run past him.
While Butcher says his Derby tactics are not set in stone punters should expect business as usual from Changeover's stablemate Winforu in the night's main pacing free-for-all.
The transtasman star has also drawn the ace in his 2600m mobile event and he looks certain to lead and take an enormous amount of catching.
His run will be aided by the lack of gate speed from his mostly South Island-trained rivals, few of whom are suited to attacking mid-race.
That suggests the very real possibility that Winforu will lead and dictate the terms of the race before sprinting home too quickly for most.
"The draw is ideal for him and he will be very hard to beat," said Butcher.
If Winforu is to lead then fellow northerner Sly Flyin looks his biggest danger as he is drawn to trail him throughout.
Sly Flyin was a storming third in the Auckland Cup, beating home Winforu, and should get the last crack at the leader up the passing lane for catch driver David Butt.
An interesting newcomer to Addington in the race will be rugged mare Waitfornoone, having a rare left-handed start.
Derby certainty?
* Changeover is the red hot favourite to win the New Zealand Derby tonight.
* He has drawn barrier one and is expected to lead.
* Driver David Butcher says the superstar pacer should be improved by his Flying Stakes win last Friday.
* Butcher will also drive Winforu from barrier one in the main pacing free-for-all.
Latest betting:
New Zealand Derby, $150,000, 3yo mobile pace, group one, 2600m (run at Addington tonight):
$1.30 Changeover; $8.50 Gotta Go Cullen; $9 Days Of Courage; $12 Top Tempo; $31 St Barts, Montecito, Rocket Reign, Costalot; $51 The Gigolo; $61 Christian Fire, Niraadi, Announcement; $121 Hayton Major.
Michael Guerin analyses the big races at Addington tonight
RACE FIVE, 7.58pm
Allegro Agitato (5) would be a good thing at her best but raced well below that last Friday. Back to a mobile will suit and if she can get the lead still top pick.
Some Direction (1) found 20m handicap too much last week but earlier form was great so logical threat from the ace.
Play On (2) stormed home to win standing start race against most of these last Friday and likes the mobile. Will sit handy to the pace without working.
Pompallier (9) is slowly edging back to his best and also likes the mobile but this draw is a tough one while Cracker Nova (7) looks the best roughie.
Top three: Allegro Agitato, Some Direction, Play On.
The bet: Some Direction (1) each way.
RACE SIX, 8.30pm
Impossible to go past the horses drawn to lead, Winforu (1) and trail, Sly Flyin (10).
Winforu was in great form over the Aussie summer and in a race with little mid-race pressure he should dominate.
Sly Flyin (10) stormed into third in the Auckland Cup and should get the trail and the passing lane. Obvious danger.
Waipawa Lad (6) hasn't had a lot of luck recently and loves to come with one run, something which may not suit the pattern of this race.
London Legend (8) is back to his best but will need to be from the draw. Likmesiah (2) has a trifecta hope.
Top three: Winforu, Sly Flyin, London Legend.
The bet: Sly Flyin each way.
RACE SEVEN, 9.02pm
A muddled 3-year-old crop but the best two look to be Trotupastorm (6) and King Charlie (4).
Both have manners concerns but big engines and at this stage Trotupastorm looks top seed, especially as he has gate speed.
King Charlie (4) was purchased for big money a few months ago and has not been faultless since but on his best behaviour looks a big threat.
Holiday Lover (8) has a huge rep, as does Sun Lad (12) and either of them could easily upset.
Ronnie Coute (2) won weak Sales Series Trot last start and is also not foolproof but talented. Hazel Maud (7), Jazmin Alicia (3) and Patrick Jay (14) have place chances.
Top three: Trotupastorm, King Charlie, Sun Lad.
The bet: Tough race but King Charlie (4) can win if he trots so worth the risk.
RACE NINE, 10.06pm
Changeover (1) is the new superstar of New Zealand harness racing and from the ace he looks home.
Powerful stayer with the gate speed to hold the front it is hard to see him beaten on his favourite track. Top Tempo (3) did enough in Flying Stakes last week to suggest she is at least a place chance while the draw has not helped Gotta Go Cullen (13) but he was below his best last Friday anyway.
Still good enough to bounce back. Rocket Reign (5) has been a big improver over the summer and was good winning from wide barrier over 1950m here last Friday while Days Of Courage (6) chased home Changeover in the Northern Derby last month and will appreciate the longer trip.
Those looking for trifecta value shouldn't leave out St Barts (11), who could sit three fence and do no work.
Top three: Changeover, Top Tempo, Rocket Reign.
The bet: Trifectas: 1 to win with 2/3/5/6/11/13 for second and third.
