KEY POINTS:
There are three conclusions you can draw from One Dream's defeat in the Harness Jewels on Saturday.
Maybe One Dream is overrated and hasn't improved much from last season.
Maybe winner Running On Faith is better than anybody, except her connections, have ever given her credit for.
Or perhaps One Dream needs a good kick up the behind to change her attitude.
The reality is probably a combination of all three.
One Dream sent bookmakers into fits of laughter and left punters stunned when she led but was outstayed by Running On Faith, who sat three wide for the entire three-year-old fillies' race.
It was the second time in their last four clashes that Running On Faith has beaten One Dream and while there may have been an excuse when driver Frank Cooney dropped the whip in the Northern Oaks, on Saturday there was no doubt the best horse won.
Simple analysis. One Dream worked to get to the front, then had an easy time and Running On Faith covered more ground and beat her.
Times and sectionals irrelevant, winner was outstanding and the runner-up only average.
So let's examine the evidence.
Has One Dream improved from last season?
Well, she certainly looks stronger. And her best performances have been stunning, like when she sat parked to win the Nevele R Fillies Final.
And she is still beating the fillies who chased her home last season - Top Tempo, Reality Check and Spicey - as easily as last season.
And let's not forget she ended last season by sitting parked to win the Breeders Crown in Australia, thrashing Miss Hazel and Fleur De Lil, who have dominated that crop this season.
So One Dream is still very good, although after losing two out of her last four the crown of champion sits somewhat unevenly on her head.
Now to Running On Faith.
To say she is as good as One Dream defies logic because they have met 10 times and Running On Faith has won two of those and One Dream eight, although Running On Faith fell on one occasion.
But the gap has obviously closed as Running On Faith has started to feel more comfortable on the racetrack.
Trainer Jeff Crouth and driver Peter Ferguson, who won both $200,000 fillies' races on Saturday, have done a superb job nursing Running On Faith back from the horrors of her fall in last season's Sires' Stakes Final.
She came off the track bleeding that night and while the physical wounds soon healed the mental scars were there until just a few starts ago.
Her reluctance to stride out confidently at times since has damaged her overall record but as her courage has returned she has risen to One Dream's level.
One Dream still has more natural speed but when their races become a war Running On Faith seems more up for the battle.
But that doesn't explain what happened on Saturday because Running On Faith still sat three wide and beat the other best fillies in the country too.
She is now developing into an incredible stayer, a clone of Ferguson's former driving sweetheart Kates First.
Ironically Running On Faith has won the two richest fillies' races of the season yet won't win Filly of the Year. But if there was an award for bravest filly of the year nothing else would get a vote.
The pair haven't finished their rivalry for the season either, with both likely to head to the Breeders Crown in Ballarat in August, possibly stopping in for the Australian Oaks.
By which stage punters will want to know whether One Dream is really trying quite as hard as a great horse should.
While nothing can be taken away from Running On Faith's performance on Saturday, One Dream paraded looking amazing but raced liked a sports car towing a caravan.
There is a school of thought driver Frank Cooney should have gone harder in the middle stages to make her rivals gasp but the bottom line is One Dream didn't look that enthused about going much faster.
After a year of winning whatever she wants, however she wants, she occasionally seems to lose interest in the actual business of racing.
It is a frailty which has lowered the colours of better fillies than One Dream in the past.
Maybe the time has come for blinkers to be added to her gear to refocus her.
Or for co-trainer Dave McGowan to have a little one-on-one talk with One Dream centred on how spoilt little fillies sometimes end up getting a belt across the rump.
Maybe then One Dream will be able to fight off Running On Faith. Or maybe the gap that has closed will never open again.
