“He is going as well as he was last year and he has a lot in his favour,” he told the Herald.
“He has a lot of weight but young Danika (Wilson, apprentice) claims 4kgs off and he has barrier 1 so I think he will take some beating.”
He also suggests Berbizier (R4, No.2) has to be an each-way chance after his late-charging third at Omoto on Wednesday, that meeting being by far the best form guide to tomorrow with the majority of horses backing up.
One who won’t be backing up is Illicit Dreams, who bolted in at Omoto in what was her first her first start since the 1000 Guineas.
“I thought she should have been $1.50 but the bookies gave $4 which was remarkable,” says Rae.
“She won’t start on Saturday and will either go to the Gore Guineas or back up home.”
Her withdrawal suggests Third Decree is one of the better bets at Kumara having raced in far stronger races in recent starts and she won on this track last year, with Kumara one of the ultimate horses for course surfaces.
Before tomorrow Rae and Williams will have a big team in on their home track of Ruakaka today, where the stable has the bigger of their two setups, the other being in Canterbury. They have their usual strong numbers today, and Rae rates Electric Dream (R2, No.12) as one of his better chances.
She finished fifth in a deep maiden race on this track on debut, that race won by subsequent black-type winner Glamour Tycoon.
Later in the programme Mischief Managed and Heart Of Alladin are fresh up in a handy Rating 65 (race five) and Rae says Mischief Managed is the better chance and can win.
Punters should also look out for promising maiden Mad Max, who is in both Race 4 and 7 today but with Warren Kennedy declared to ride in R7 he looks certain to start there.
He showed promise before a brief Victorian campaign in the spring and then trialled well before being beaten when well backed last start but looks certain to appreciate the step up to 1400m and the likelihood of a better track today.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.