“But I think in this grade we can’t really afford to let her just relax and settle back because we would be giving away too much ground.
“I’d like her to settle midfield but worry about how to get her there without getting her too fired up. If she does that it will dull her finishing kick.”
Drawn well, Snazzytavi would have been one of the horses to beat but she will now require luck, whereas other key runners like Campionessa (on a dry track), One Bold Cat, El Vencedor and No Compromise all have handy draws.
That quartet are also the only proven Group 1 winners in the field and all are ridden by jockeys with outstanding Group 1 records over the last two seasons, so it hard to bet against one of the four winning.
While Kennedy really will need to be the Wizard of Waz to get Snazzytavi home, he thinks the rest of his book is his best so far this spring.
“It is a strong book with some really good winning chances,” he told the Herald.
Habana has to carry 59kg in the open sprint (Race 7) but he is a big strong horse who has lumped similar weights to win the Rich Hill Mile and Stella Artois Final.
“He needed the run at Ellerslie last time and I couldn’t really get at him because he wasn’t in clear air. But he has really come on from that and I really think this his race to lose.”
Habana does meet a slick jump-and-run galloper in Witz End, who could take catching with just 53kg on his back.
Kennedy says both his O’Sullivan/Scott-trained mares Sassy Lass and Lux Libertas can win.
“Sassy Lass [R3, No.1] is best when it is really wet but she was good enough at Hastings last time on a good track that she can win this and I am not too worried about her weight.
“And I have always liked Lux Libertas [R5, No.2]. The first time I rode her I thought she was at least a Listed or Group 3 winner in waiting and I have felt nothing to suggest she isn’t.
“She was unlucky last time but this is the perfect race for her.”
Kennedy is expecting good things from all of his other rides, including Flash Effect in a very strong Race 1 for the three-year-olds.
But the one horse he does have words of warning about is Dazzled (R8, No.14).
“She is still very much on the way up and I think she will improve with the run this week.”
JMac gives up Orchestral
James McDonald has been forced to give up the ride on exceptional Kiwi mare Orchestral at Caulfield tomorrow.
McDonald rode Orchestral to win the Karaka Million 3-year-old and then the Group 1 Vinery Stakes in Sydney last season and was booked to ride her in the A$1 million ($1.1m) Toorak Handicap tomorrow.
But after initial topweight Pride Of Jenni didn’t accept for the race, the weights were surprisingly not raised and Orchestral will carry just 54kg, rather than the 55.5kg her trainers were expecting.
That rules out McDonald, who rarely rides below 55kg and he will now partner Pericles in the 1600m feature.
Orchestral will still have a Kiwi for company tomorrow, with Daniel Stackhouse her new rider. McDonald is likely to be back on her for the Empire Rose Stakes in three weeks.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
