KEY POINTS:
They are going to make us work for the $1 million PickSix at Hastings today.
Aside from the glamour mare Seachange in the feature, the $250,000 Mudgway Partsworld Stakes, there are no obvious stake-trimming anchors.
To make the job even tougher, you have to compute wet-track form on a dead track. That's a sure-fire recipe for an upset or two.
Still, it's got to be a lot easier than striking Lotto tonight - and a lot more fun.
Here's our breakdown of how the six legs shape up:
Leg one
Must includes: The Roger James-trained Bringbackthebiff ticks all the right boxes. He's a course and distance winner against similar class, he's drawn perfectly at four and will handle a dead surface. The biggest plus, though, is the 2kg claim from in-form apprentice Shannon Doyle. The well-drawn Dead Rabbits has to be a huge threat for Noel Harris. He had Cape Kinaveral at full stretch last time, is a course winner and is more than just a wet-tracker. Hoorang would appreciate the ground wetter, but she may still cope. She killed them at Otaki, and is still at a dangerous weight. Northerners Taking The Mickey and Winsome Kash will relish the firmer track more than most. The former failed in his only other try at the trip, but has been rounding out his recent 1600m runs like the distance will suit.
Consider: If he'd claimed topweight Taikorea would be right in this. Three starts back he was a close fourth to Valley Chief in the Hawkes Bay Cup.
Leg two
Must includes: If you saw Holly Bolly's last-start win at Taupo it's tempting to anchor the Pukekohe filly. They simply don't blow the start that much and still get up, let alone do it with something in hand. Special conditions races like these can be tricky, however, and she can't botch the jump again and win. The Murray Baker-trained Rios is the insurance, if rider David Walsh can overcome the wide gate. He looked good winning at the recent Taupo trials and wasn't far off Martini Red last time he raced. Forget Mybrearne's last start. He was badly checked in the straight.
Consider: Cambridge maiden Tonafun is better than his formline reads. He was confidently backed at Taupo but didn't get the best of trips.
Leg three
Must includes: Course specialist Samurai only needs to have freshened up the right way from his Winter Cup fourth to win. Noel Harris will need luck clearing traffic from his inside alley, but the gelding has a devastating finish. Who Knows will be the sentimental favourite if he doesn't escape the Mudgway ballot. The only query is the 1600m, a trip he's failed to fire over in Hong Kong. Ben Hogan could be value outside the obvious favourites. He's always a threat on the course and has slipped to a dangerous position in the weights. Brisbane Cup runner-up Lilakyn is best over more ground, but can threaten in a fresh state. She ran second over 1400m at this meeting last year.
Consider: Samantha Collett's 3kg claim brings Floydeboyinto calculations, even though he'd prefer it much wetter.
Leg four
Must includes: It's tempting to label class mare Santagostino close to an anchor here. Her fresh-up run over 1200 at Taupo was huge; she only came to the end of it near the line and will be much fitter for this. Michael Walker rides. Molta has usually needed a race or two to be at her best, but this past course winner is a handy mare who could upset. Two starts back she was a fast-finishing fourth in Sir Slick's Anniversary Handicap. Veloce Bella and Marty Boy are both capable of upsetting the favourite. Veloce Bella, however, needs luck from her wide gate and speed up front that's not obvious on paper. With a 3kg claim, Marty Boy is the value runner.
Consider: Arica and Al Dahar will need luck from their wide gates, but at their best can threaten.
Leg five
Must includes: Everything points to top mare Seachange making it a Mudgway double. Forget her last-start fifth in the Foxbridge. Raceday rain washed away her chances and she was badly in need of the run. If the favourite is softened up enough in transit, however, J'Adane is ready to capitalise. The group-placed mare has come back bigger and stronger from giving the top Aussies a fright last season.
Consider: Stradbroke Handicap placegetter Cog Hill showed he's close to his best with his last-start Foxbridge Plate third. With a hot pace, watch for him powering home late.
Leg six
Must includes: With any kind of decent draw Alberto would be close to an anchor. But his 16 gate opens up a headache of options for those wanting to keep the blood pressure in check. Local Maximum Star is lining up for his fourth straight win, but looks like he's up to the class jump and has an alley to compliment natural gate speed.
If you like your live PickSix ticket on a front-runner you could do worse than freshened local Stilicho. He loves the track and has the gas to get a winning break on the corner.
Consider: In a race stacked with early speed, sharp-beginner Antipodean may still be able to negate his horror gate. Elblitzem is fresh and dangerous.
