KEY POINTS:
The $150,00 Great Northern Guineas looks the best race of the three features to grab a decent return at Ellerslie this afternoon.
That said, it's also by far the toughest race on the programme to nail the trifecta.
Much will depend on the run of the race and how most of these emerging 3-year-olds manage to settle through most of the 2100m.
Avancer probably has the greatest potential in the field and if he can show he can handle the big crowd today without getting too stirred up through inexperience, he will be the hardest to beat. You had to be impressed with the way he finished off to win at Ellerslie and Avondale in his last two starts and if he can bring that to the end of this longer distance they probably won't be able to keep him out.
Coupling him up with Mission Critical, last weekend's impressive winner Sircross and quick improver Il Divo might be wise.
Sircross showed he could manage the trip when he kept up a sustained finish to win over 2100m here last Sunday. This is up a grade in class, but there was plenty to like about that run.
Also about the way Mission Critical handled himself in his gallop with stablemate Xcellent at Ellerslie last Thursday. He is an impressive type who gives every indication that staying distances will be his lurk. Il Divo hit the finish like a stayer when he scored over 1600m here a few weeks back and with only three starts behind him cannot help but be improved. There is a lot of talent outside this quartet and if you wanted to drop your percentage it might not hurt to include a couple of others. Prince Kaapstad, Six O'Clock News and C'est La Guerre are all capable of getting into the trifecta.
The 58kg will not help, but McCahon (No 1, R1) is not the worst way to open the day. He has competed against tougher fields and has a reasonable draw at the 1400m. Take no notice that he finished last here last Sunday week when resuming from a spell - that was against the likes of Baldessarini and St Verdi, two of the major players for the group one Railway on New Year's Day. This is a lot easier that that. Primavera (No 3) is a good value runner. She is slightly underrated and the 4kg apprentice allowance takes her down to the minimum weight. She was caught wide last start and before that turned in a big fast-closing third to Pindy at Matamata. The Georgian (No 9) is dropping back in class after an eye-catching close up fourth to Stateswoman at Trentham.
The barrier draw put a knife through the 2-year-old race, Race 2. Two of the likely favourites He's Licarocket and Straitothepoolroom have been withdrawn because of outside barriers, but the Yuill/Goodin stable is running Concerto (No 1) despite having originally drawn No 15 of the 16 runners. That will not be easy on him, but then he overcame enormous difficulties to come from last to win on debut on Avondale Cup day.
From the draw, the two he beat at Avondale, Tlingit (No 5) and Nuke Time (No 4) might prove more difficult this time. Nuke Time was taken on in front at Avondale and is liable to do better here and Tlingit should be better for the one debut outing. Plenty of chances and Raid (No 6), freshened, is one of them from an inside gate.
Morgalicious (No 13, R3) was a good thing beaten on this track last Sunday week, flashing home late after being held up. Michael Walker climbs aboard this time and the combination will be difficult to keep out. Calatrava (No 15) looked good on debut, producing a strong finish from the middle of the pack for second. El Nadia (No 9) won't find her outside draw any friend, but she can really rattle home late and if she manages to get cover she could be in the frame.
It's only a small field, but the Newmarket Handicap, not for the first time, is difficult to sort out. There will be no lack of speed here with Magic Tryst (No 9, R4) Smartway (No 8) and Captivate (No 2) all on-pace runners. It might set up for something coming from just off the speed and Clifton Prince (No 1), despite his 58kg and ordinary record at Ellerslie, could be difficult to keep out late. Needuask (No 6) will probably start favourite after his Concorde win at Avondale and is the obvious one to beat from a nice barrier. Tough race, but it's probably looking like Needuask.
Eye Me Up (No 1, R5) is the omen tip of the day - young women in flash outfits, champagne, blokes on the prowl - never mind, get back to the horses. It was no surprise when Eye Me Up won at Avondale after a huge performance for fourth at Riccarton. She goes from 55.5kg to 58kg - a tough weight for a mare - but she looks to have a touch of real ability. Monica's Legacy (No 4) claims 4kg, meaning she will have 6kg less than the topweight and it puts her right in contention. She was impressive winning at Avondale, albeit in easier class than this. Sky Rocket (No 2) is in the right form to push into the trifecta.
If Insouciant (No 1, R6) is allowed to get away with a gentle lead in the Eight Carat Classic the opposition are going to get a headache trying to pick her up late. She showed in winning at 1000 Guineas and again at Awapuni last weekend that she has the best sprint among the 3-year-old fillies and if she gets away without having to do too much work she should be too sharp. If not, then the likes of Keepa Cruisin (No 2) and Satinka (No 3) are right in it. Satinka is the interesting runner. She has ample speed, but got back from an awkwardly wide barrier in the Levin Classic last start and flew late to get third. From the No 1 barrier this time she is in a much better spot to dictate. Rider Leith Innes and the connections of Keepa Cruisin will be hoping Insouciant and Satinka get into some type of speed duel.
Keep The Passion (No 3, R7) looks one of the better bets after her narrow defeat by the talented Power Cut at Te Rapa two starts back. She tackled group company and went a fair race behind Sarajay last Saturday week and will find this a whole lot easier. From an inside barrier she should cop an economical trip. Sunrize (No 7) has been backed and beaten a couple of times, but conditions haven't always suited. He needs good ground to perform to his best and don't forget he was only 1.5 lengths off All Square at Awapuni last Saturday week and All Square was just beaten in the Manawatu Cup on Saturday.
Difficult to see how you can extract value from the $200,000 Zabeel Classic. It's late in the day, people will be looking to "get out" and the short odds on Xcellent are unlikely to appeal to most. There are no certainties in horse racing, but you can't predict Xcellent will be beaten. A fascinating contest to watch, an ordinary one to bet on.
There is much more value in the last. Thumbs Up (No 9, R10) has made a big impression in only two starts and although it won't be easy for him as a 3-year-old carrying 57kg against the older horses, he can give a previously injured Mark Du Plessis a welcome back to racing. There will be an upset somewhere in this trifecta. Intent (No 13) tailed the field last start here, but he's better than that and could spice up the trifecta. Porika Track (No 6) is a real tote-buster.
The best of the day look to be Morgalicious (R3), Eye Me Up (R5) and Insouciant (R6) with McCahon (R1) and Keep The Passion (R7) appealing on an each-way basis.
