KEY POINTS:
Stone Garden might be a better investment at Matamata today than his form suggests.
The 7-067 formline might lead some to believe they'll get $15 in Race 8, but you won't.
Stone Garden has had five starts for three wins on slow footing and one of those misses was last start when he had to cover a lot of extra ground around the Tauranga home bend before finishing seventh. The horses closer to the fence were doing better that day and it was a more accomplished effort than it might have looked.
Stone Garden is a smart horse and will be ready for the jump up to 2000m this time.
Soelin (No4, R5) is another whose formline does not reflect the terrific races she's been turning in. She keeps getting to the line, which will be an advantage this afternoon, but you have to take the slight risk that the Stravinsky mare will handle the track if it becomes quite heavy. If she handles the footing the home track advantage will help and so, too, should the outside gate, which will allow her plenty of space to finish off from the back. Gold Merit (No14) and Winsome Kash (No5) are the value runners.
El Perez (No2, R7) is a class act in the wet. If the track is wet and loose _ and it should be _ then he'll be ideally suited. He hasn't raced since he went amiss last October, but he showed with his 1400m barrier trial win recently that he's ready to do something despite being fresh from a break. Remember, he's only twice been beaten on a heavy track. Kirra Sand (No5) is a danger. She has been racing in stronger company overall than this and looks nicely placed in a handicap with only a couple of kilos above the minimum. She has a home town advantage. Vercors (No8) hasn't had a lot of luck and could be in it.
The way the track will race today will be tricky and it might pay to looks for value in a few of the races rather than take on the short odds. Exilio (No14, R1) is worth a look. She's better than her form reads on paper and if her luck is better this time she could be right in it.
Elblitzem (No2, R2) is worth a look and is one to follow from this point. He probably needed his fresh-up run at Te Rapa recently anyway, but he got caught wide from an outside draw and that was the end of his chances. He's the type to improve quickly and the draw looks a lot better this time. You can see him sitting on the pace and kicking hard from the corner.
The juvenile race could be a trap, but Heza Karma Karsi (No4, R3) is a horse with a future. He's a giant in stature and did well on debut to finish third at Awapuni. The inside draw helped him that day, but from an outside gate at Te Rapa subsequently everything went wrong and he actually didn't do the worst job to be six lengths off them. He's drawn reasonably this time and on his home track he's worth a look each way, but only if he's $5.50 or better.
A bit of money got left behind when Capistrano Angel (No6, R4) could finish only seventh when resuming on this track last month. She's better than that and could be even a bit better value today.
Mill Vinnie (No2, R6) is smart and could still be on the improve. A very bad barrier beat him at Ellerslie two starts back and he did well to finish third to stylish winner Petushki at Te Rapa last start after having to cart wide on the corner when improving. Tycoon (No3) will find this a bit easier than the Bow Lane-Crossyourheart-Crossthestart race he finished fifth in at Ellerslie last start.
The sprint looks tough. It might not have if Pindy (No6, R9) hadn't run such a shocker when resuming at Ellerslie last month. He has looked really smart, winning three from three on soft footing and one from one on his home track here. The overall form is so good he's worth forgiving.
New Plymouth: When there's rain around Keep The Message (No5, R8) is always difficult to keep out. He will be tough to beat in the $60,000 Cambridge Clothing Interprovincial in a race that looks to suit. Jowka (No1) has been tough winning two straight then looking unlucky behind stablemate Shamrock Star last start. He will find this easier.
