Mike Dillon: Staying power points to magic finish in St Leger

Mike Dillon

When you bring horses together for races like the St Leger, it's a time-consuming exercise to line up the talent each runner has been facing in lead-up races.

But it can be worth it.

Maythehorsebemagic has some of the best form races behind him as he attempts to take today's $80,000 time-honoured Trentham feature.

Two starts ago he ran in the group two City Of Auckland Cup at Ellerslie. He finished only ninth, but it was a luckless placing.

He got into the clear in the home straight and was only starting to wind up when the post arrived. That is excellent form for a race like this.

Yes, he's drawn out in the carpark, but as a back runner over 2500m that's probably not going to be a factor.

Maythehorsebemagic has a stout finish and that's something his rivals are going to have to deal with.

Three of them are his stablemates - Dampierre, Katie's Dan and Fiorano and each of the trio has a strong winning chance.

Dampierre has drawn the best of them and if you take a line through his close second to Six O'Clock News - who won that City Of Auckland Cup Maythehorsebemagic contested - on an unsuitable wet track at Otaki last start, you have to fancy his chances.

Valhalla, the horse that won and lost the $100,000 Dunstan Final at Ellerslie, and emerging talent Harris Tweed are big chances.

The weight that smart filly Lesley Brook (No 1, R2) has to concede to the opposition might be too much to overcome. As talented as she is, Lesley Brook, on 58kg, has to give the likes of promising Mr Thorpedo (No 5) 4kg. With a supposed 1.5kg allowance for fillies, that's 5.5kg and could be the difference between the southern filly and those underneath her.

Charlie McBride (No 6, R3) left maidens by only half a head on this track in January, but his fighting spirit was impressive. That wasn't a straight maiden race - it contained three previous winners including Wyban Angel, who has won another since. Charlie McBride could be a horse with a bit of a future. We'll see today.

Tsonga (No 9, R4) is extremely smart and is going to take plenty of beating on his last-start winning performance. Wilfred Owen (No 12) is similarly talented, but the difference is his lack of experience compared with Tsonga. Wilfred Owen has won his only two starts in dashing fashion and hasn't had a clue what he's out there for in either appearance. The penny will gradually drop and if it has already fallen, he's going to take beating.

Plenty of chances in Race 5, the $75,000 Thompson Handicap, and they're not restricted to the recent form horses. Vosne Romanee (No 4) can finally get the win he deserves. He ran a cracker when second to Mufhasa in the Coupland Bakeries Mile at Riccarton in November and things simply didn't go right when a beaten favourite behind Sir Slick in the Anniversary Handicap in January.

Not sure the Oaks, Race 8, is an ideal betting race. There are cases for and against around most of the fancied runners and it could turn out to be a trap like last year's upset Oaks result.

Daffodil (No 1) is probably the safe bet, but is she going to be value? She was at $4.20 late yesterday and many punters will be prepared to take that. Juice (No 3) is definite each-way value if she comes up at the $9 she was at yesterday and Starmon (No 12) and Taatledoya (No 15) are among the emerging types. If you fancy something in the $15-$25 range don't be frightened to bet each way. It's that sort of race.

At Te Rapa today, Veloz (No 12, R7) will attempt to make up for his costly failure when he stood in the stalls as favourite when resuming at Ellerslie.

He got through his required trial at Cambridge during the week and looks a dangerous lightweight on 53.5kg.

With a 2kg Jason Collett claim, Sir Roland (No 3, R4) is going to take some stopping. He capitulated only late after leading at the 320m at Ellerslie over the carnival and this field is a touch easier.

St Germaine (No 2, R5) should win the babies' race.

Cambridge trainer Ross Elliot can have a big day. The Perfect Storm (No 11, R6) has had only one start and hasn't raced for nearly a year, but she galloped well during the recent Breakfast With The Stars at Ellerslie.

And Elliot's Vanny Fair (No 5, R9) could race boldly when fresh. She hasn't always had a lot of luck.