Mike Dillon: Stable hopes Spirits will be lifted

Half a dozen top winning chances outside Katie Lee in the $100,000 feature If the rain arrives Amirar (left) will come into more favour in race 8. Photo / Dean Purcell

Co-trainer Ken Kelso is hoping to show what a difference a week makes in horse racing with Spirits Bay at Pukekohe today.

Last week the Matamata trainer had one of his worst days in 30 years of training when Magic Briar lost second placing in the 1000 Guineas at Riccarton.

The group one placing cost the connections an estimated $300,000 in broodmare residuals and Kelso owns a quarter share himself.

The stable will be looking to the talented Spirits Bay to hold up her end in race 2, the $30,000 NZ Bloodstock Insurance 1400.

With two outings so far this preparation - for a fifth and a fourth - Spirits Bay is now positioned to resume winning form.

She gets to the finish strongly in her races and the long run home at Pukekohe will provide her with every opportunity. Fears Nothing could be some each-way value.

Time Pays (No4, R1) looked desperately unlucky not to win a race in four starts in his last preparation. He got into awkward spots at least twice and did well to record three seconds and a fifth last start. He comes in fresh here and should be a better horse this time.

The draw is a fraction awkward and it's a hot maiden field, but he won't be disgraced. The favourite will be Annzabeel (No15) who made an impression with a solid second on debut. The bigger track this time will help.

With the form on the board Antonio Lombardo (No1, R3) picks himself to win the babies race, the $45,000 Murdoch Newell Stakes. He showed plenty of heart in his fighting win on very testing ground at Trentham last start and looks a quality individual.

Peter McKay has an outstanding record of keeping his juveniles at their best through a campaign and from an inside barrier he looks the way to go. Only time will tell how good the horses Holy Moly (No6) beat on debut at Te Rapa are, but she certainly put them to the sword in devastating fashion.

Unfortunately she has drawn the outside of 13 horses, which will make the job difficult, but she has plenty of ability. There are multiple chances outside this pair.

Rain, or the absence of it, will have a major bearing on this race meeting. Rain is due from mid-morning and if that is accurate it will severely hamper the chances of some pretty good prospects today. One of them could be Spera (No1, R4), who had next-up about her when a close fourth on this track at the last meeting. But a combination of a rain-affected track and 58kg topweight certainly won't help.

Prairie Star (No11) won't mind a bit of rain, in fact it would probably help, and she rates highly after a first-up sprint at Te Rapa. This suits a lot better.

The Foreman (No2, R5) had no luck at all when resuming at Trentham last start. Hayden Tinsley could not find him racing room and he's better placed here in a small field on a roomy track. The better the footing the better he'll like it.

The significance of the forecast rain will be hugely important around Katie Lee (No2, R6) in the $100,000 Breeders Stakes. If it arrives in quantity Katie Lee is probably going to struggle, otherwise the stable is confident of an effort that will erase the memory of her abortive outing on Cox Plate day in Melbourne. She is well up to winning this, but conditions will be paramount. There are at least half a dozen top winning chances even outside Katie Lee.

One of them is Pennacchio (No5), who has been freshened since tackling the first two legs of the Hastings spring treble. She finished a good fifth to Keep The Peace the first day and was probably bogged down by conditions the middle day. She continues to be underrated and the each-way odds today should be useful.

Dancing Jess (No1), She Rules (No3), Sharp Princess (No6) and Eileen Dubh (No7) are all difficult to leave out of multiple bets.

Noble Warrior (No5, R7) is shaping as a stayer with a future. He's making a big jump from 1600m to 2400m, but it's a distance that will eventually be his ideal trip.

The connections of Tinseltown (No1, R8) have had their prayers answered with the rain. The quality stayer is good on all types of footing, but is probably best somewhere between dead and slow. His latest runs over 1400m and 1600m have been good and he's been looking for a distance like today's 2100m. He has to contend with topweight, but he's earned it.

If the rain arrives, Amirar (No5) will come into more favour and Minqar Qaim (No6) is better suited here than in the Coupland's Bakeries Mile last start. He went well there though and was unlucky when seventh. So Royal (No7) and Veloce Bella (No2) are other chances in a wide open field.

Nothing blunts sheer speed more than rain and Italian Princess (No8, R9) will be twice the horse on a dry track than she will be if it rains.

She was fabulous the way she won at Te Rapa when resuming and needs only the right conditions to do something similar, even if the opposition is better this time. Graham Richardson holds a strong hand because if the track does deteriorate he can still win the race with Show Up (No5). Sandblaster (No2) and Rusty Devil (No3) won't mind rain.

The last looks very difficult, but it might not pay to forget the Ellerslie winning run two starts ago by Sir Jack Gunno (No6, R10). It was huge and a similar run would just about get him home here. St Pedro (No2) is very honest.