KEY POINTS:
Whether you have a bet in the race or not, the race you really need to watch today is the A$500,000 ($566,000) Rosehill Guineas.
And not just because it's Australasia's richest race by far on the day.
It will tell us how good our 3-year-olds are.
If Redoute's Dancer deals to his opposition in the Guineas, it completely endorses the form from our $700,000 Mercedes Derby at Ellerslie.
The handsome colt is not the favourite, but he might give the likes of Teranaba a fright.
Good betting card at Tauranga today.
Nelson Bay (No3, R1) is going to go close to getting things off to the right start in the opener. He led, went clear and was run down at Trentham last start but what made his run so good was that it was a top effort on the part of the winner Waitui Pride to go and get him. On his overall form Nelson Bay deserves to break through for a win and this could be it.
You had to like the way Kate Cross (No11, R2) got to the line for third when resuming in a fast-run race behind Bono at Ellerslie. This is up one grade from that race, but does not look any stronger and there are certainly no Bono's engaged. Loaded Command (No10) came back from a short break with a nice close third at Ellerslie last time.
The open sprint could be a trap. You have the very talented Brianna (No9, R3) coming back from a seven-week break after a throat infection, topweight Devoted, without blinkers, coming off a three-month break and horses like Happy Sculpture (No5) and Rosetti Bay (No2) resuming. A complicated equation. Volscar (No8) each way might be the bet, but go easy.
Irlanda (No2, R4) has not raced since her nice fourth to Veloce Bella in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic at Te Rapa. That is good form for a race like this and although the distance is short of her best, her class should take her into the race. Stablemates Titan Prince (No1) and Massive Heights (No3) are right in the race.
Vanderbeel (No1, R6) is backing up a touch quick, but he was so stylish in winning last week that the 1.5kg increase to remain in the same grade does not look like an impossible ask.
He is a Zabeel that has had only seven starts and could be on the verge of something pretty good judging by last week.
No Limits (No5) is right in the race and the real value is Postman (No8). He was making ground nicely at the end of 1600m at Ellerslie on Auckland Cup day and will appreciate the big step up to 2100m.
Narredson (No6, R7) scored one of the most impressive wins over the Auckland Cup carnival. He had to change ground in the home straight, but still managed to level out and power home. He might be a handful to work with, but he's a 3-year-old of huge potential. There are some similarly smart types engaged here, but he'll give them plenty of headaches. Ginga Dude (No4) is stylish.
The odds should determine whether you go for Sir Slick (No1, R8) or bet against him being able to lump his 59.5kg. Early yesterday he was $3 equal favourite with Charliehorse, but when Charliehorse was withdrawn after trotting up a bit ordinary yesterday his odds tumbled into $2.20.
With no Charliehorse the $2.20 is probably better odds than the original $3.
There is no question Sir Slick is well treated with 59.5kg and he's going to give this a great shake. High Octane (No4), Dezigna (No2) and Final Reality (No7) should form the trifecta.
Makutuwai (No10, R9) is a real up and comer. He has been given a break after his terrific second to High Octane in the Duoro Cup and tends to race well on the fresh side. This won't be easy though with Hagar (No1) looking for some luck and McCahon (No3) appearing a good thing beaten when he covered far too much ground at Ellerslie last start.
