KEY POINTS:
Don't underestimate how much more difficult the rain has made Sir Slick's task in lumping his big weight in today's $200,000 First Sovereign Champions Mile at Ellerslie.
Not only is Sir Slick a better racehorse on a firm surface, rain affected footing should make it that much more difficult for on-pace runners throughout the programme this afternoon.
That's not to say Sir Slick can't win - outstanding racehorses like him overcome adversity - but be aware of just what a performance it will be if he does.
The safest way is to include him and bet around the likes of Gaze, Final Reality, Dezigna, Fiscal Madness and the real blowout is lightweight Polish Princess.
The trifecta without Sir Slick in it would be impressive.
With the conditions the way they are the Champions Mile is a very open race. Don't miss it.
Race one is tricky. Beersheba Knight (No5) has had no luck. He struck it too wet at Pukekohe then got checked in the fall that put Michael Walker out of commission at Te Aroha last week. He is backing up three weeks straight, but has something on most of these at his best. He could be value. Stilastar (No3) will appreciate the easing of the ground and Waikeria (No4) and Bringbackthebiff (No1) are in the race.
Do Me A Favour (No15, R2) has hardly missed the money when she has stepped out on a rain-affected track. She has done everything but win a race and gets the perfect opportunity to do so here.
Electra Dee (No1, R3) is going to find this easier than chasing Sir Slick around at Tauranga and last week's group one Breeders Stakes at Te Aroha. And the 3kg Tasha Collett pulls off the 58kg topweight is the absolute key to the race. The Sportsman (No4, R3), Sardonyx (No5) and Hand Me Down (No9) are all value horses to put in multiples.
There is insufficient wet track form, or even exposed form of any significance, to make the Champagne Stakes a safe betting vehicle. One of the possible pointers is that on debut Azincourt (No3, R4) ran on solidly into third, giving the indication the 1600m here might help.
Magic Tryst (No3, R5) falls into the same category as Sir Slick. It is difficult to imagine a scenario for this race that is going to suit the absolute brilliance of Magic Tryst. If the ground is cutting up on the inside after the first four races, the brilliant filly faces a tough task. Brianna (No1) was beaten on a track that was moving at Awapuni in December, but has won on a slow surface and been placed at her only start on the heavy stuff. She also represents good class and has 2kg off her 58kg topweight. Interesting contest with Giovanni (No2) coming in fresh and injecting more speed into the race.
There is no doubt St Verdi (No12, R6) was not suited by the very soft track at Wellington last start. On a track that suited him, he would win this, but there has to be a slight question mark. This could be a real blowout race and those poised are Sanitee (No14) and Rat Tat.
Italic (No3, R7) failed at her only New Zealand start on a slow track, but that was in the St Leger and she was racing out of her class. She gets to the line powerfully and makes a fair bit of each-way appeal today.
If the track condition remains reasonably good - and that will depend on how many showers arrive today - Willie Ryan (No11) is a real chance in race nine, but if it cuts up he might be out of play. In which case horses like Generated (No8) and Melanion (No9) are in with a chance to cause a mild surprise.
Conditions dictate the last. If the track was surprisingly good, Zerello (No1, R10) is in with a big chance and Makutuwai (No6) and McCahon (No5) are right in calculations. If it's really cutting up look at Shira (No16).
