Mike Dillon: Pubs might buy a round or two

Look to Alcopop to perhaps force his way into the Melbourne Cup in the A$250,000 Lexus. Photo / Getty Images.

Even from a wide gate, Pubs will take some catching around her home track at Te Awamutu today.

The early Race 2 is just in time before the real action kicks in at Flemington.

Pubs tried to lead throughout on this track last start and was beaten by an extraordinary run from a smart filly in Nancho Bella.

This field is easier and Pubs has only to allow her speed to overcome a wide gate to go close.

Her stablemate Innocent Lady (No10, R6) looks the bet of the day at the meeting.

She was stiff not to get the dollars at Te Rapa last start and before that she was fabulous when second at Ellerslie.

Staying is definitely her strength and the 2000m today is ideal.

Sandblaster (No2, R3) is a chance anyway, but if there was any rain around he would be a great bet. Take little note of his Rotorua weight-for-age unplaced run last start, it has little relevance for this.

Irish Rose (No13, R7) is a good value bet. She has ability and should be just about ready to put her head up after two races this preparation.

At the Feilding meeting at Awapuni today Barinka (No4, R7) gets her chance to strike a winning blow. Weather has dictated that she has still had only the one run this preparation, but she looks ready to step up.

Bella Rosalia (No15, R9) proved at Rotorua last start that it had been the wet tracks that had been responsible for a couple of average runs.

Her Rotorua effort was superb and definitely unlucky. She got out far too late and flew so fast she would have won in two more strides. She goes up in class, but way down to 52kg. In-form Lisa Allpress is a key to her chances.

You get a prize for knowing what the conditions at Flemington today will be.

Forecasters have altered their prediction of heavy rain from early morning to heavy rain late in the day, starting out with patchy rain.

As if punters for a Derby-day card didn't have it tough enough.

Punters are going to have to evaluate the conditions race by race.

Chances are the track might be pretty good for the first half of the programme, which was not what had been predicted.

If that's the case the A$250,000 Lexus, as Race 2, might be a little more predictable. Look to Alcopop to perhaps force his way into the Melbourne Cup.

He failed last start, but you could blame the wet track in the Caulfield Cup. His previous second to So You Think in the Caulfield Stakes was huge.

If he produces that form he'll definitely be winning.

Red Ruler needs a decent effort to ensure he runs in the Melbourne Cup and a firm track will assist. He does not like it wet.

If the rain arrives, Ginga Dude is a real chance in the Mackinnon Stakes, which is not run until 4.05 NZ time. His Australian debut win at Caulfield was no fluke and if he gets a wet track to put a few off their game, he's a chance to repeat despite the big increase in class.

What would make him a good each-way bet is the co-mingled pools to provide value and the fact that on wet footing the connections of the leading Melbourne Cup hopes will be desperate for their horses not to have gut-busting runs.

Ginga Dude is not in the Melbourne Cup, which gives him an advantage.

On a half decent surface So You Think should have them covered, although the fact they are going to have him ridden back in the field will be a concern if he starts racing too fiercely.