Mike Dillon: Pretty Vegas deserves a lucky break

Mike Dillon

In a recent interview hot apprentice James McDonald was asked if he was disappointed in some of his rides.

"Plenty of them," he offered.

Name one.

"Pretty Vegas," he said without hesitation.

Yes, we remember that one in a fillies stakes race at Ellerslie 15 months ago.

McDonald gets a chance to square the ledger in Race 10 at Te Aroha today.

To be fair, Pretty Vegas hasn't won a race since that Ellerslie occasion 16 starts back and McDonald has been aboard in three of them, so it might be a bit cheeky to suggest she can do it today, even though luck hasn't always been with her.

But she was so impressive in finishing third at Tauranga last start, that she has to rate highly.

Many of her races have been in stakes company and it makes it slightly easier today that the R80 event is restricted to fillies and mares.

Casabella Lane, Forever Roses and Altogether are dropping back from R90 races to R80. Couple them up with Pretty Vegas. Soph is similarly dropping in grade, but on prior experience she's going to need rain to show form.

Central Park's (No 5, R1) effort for a second at Te Rapa last start suggests he will be difficult to keep out in the opening event today. He had to make a lot of ground from midfield and the long straight here will give him a chance to get over the top of them. Headsup (No 12) is another strong chance.

There are some smart juveniles in Race 3, but Term Deposit (No 4) looks a great each-way chance. He looked very smart winning on debut then things went all wrong when he finished fourth to a smart type in St Fevre at his only other run. He looks like he's got depths of stamina so a dog fight here won't worry him. Poetic Music (No 6), Spirit Of Unicorn (No 8) and Shuttleworth (No 1) are live chances in a very tough and even field.

The on-pace bias early on the Tauranga programme might have assisted Attackum (No 2, R4), but it didn't take anything away from how impressive the win looked. He'd been due that victory and another could come here from a handy barrier. But the likes of Salvatore (No 5) and Vancouver (No 9) won't make it easy for him.

Albercheno (No 6, R5) has always looked smart and there is no reason why he can't repeat his Ellerslie win of last week. He can race handy and that's always been an advantage at Te Aroha.

Lauaki (No 8, R6) covered a massive amount of extra ground when resuming at Tauranga. He was beaten soon after turning into the home straight and folded, but he was still only 3.75 lengths from Santangelo. He should be improved with that run and from a better barrier draw this time should finish very close. This track will suit him better as well. Barclay Blues (No 2) and Alegrio (No 1) should be tough.

Given the history of the Breeders Stakes at Te Aroha, last night's $2.40 available on Shanzero (No 18, R7) might be a bit skinny. That's not to say she can't win it and win stylishly, but history tells us a lot can go wrong in this race, which has been a nightmare for favourites in recent years.The odds might not be value but if she gets luck she should win.

Trainer Richard Collett is unconcerned about the No 1 barrier draw, but it might mean Shanzero will be buried three or four places back along the rail, which has the potential for disaster. If you take the short odds hope for luck.

Australian mare Dane Julia (No 3) is the interesting runner. She was a gun in South Africa as a 3-year-old, but has not won a race in Australia in 11 starts, despite a number of good runs in strong company. Hard to know about her, but she should get a trouble-free run from an inside gate. Spirits Bay (No 15) and Bella Renza (No 7) can be in it with luck from wide gates.

Lily L'Amour (No 1, R9) probably would have won her last two starts - instead of being narrowly beaten - had she not covered extra ground. She's potentially in for another wide run this time from the outside gate but one. But balancing that is that there is a long run down the back straight from the 1600m start at Te Aroha and there is a chance she could get in. There could be a sudden reversal of fortune if she does.