KEY POINTS:
This is one of those rare racedays - get it right on the punt and Christmas - probably not just the approaching one - will come early.
Get it wrong and it could be a very long day.
The Counties Racing Club's fields at Ellerslie today are outstanding
betting mediums, similar to those we used to see before the overseas sales of horses helped deplete fields.
It means you can get each-way value on runners and one of the best is Stand Tall, who is going to have to do just that as he steps up to the big guns for the first time in the $200,000 Eagle Technology Counties Cup.
Stand Tall has always had the breeding to take him to the top, but leg issues have slowed the path. He is now relatively clear of that and his three winning runs this preparation have been impressive.
They have been at 1600m and he has frightened punters a couple of times by being slow to wind to full momentum over that distance, but at 2100m today that shouldn't be an issue.
He is a lovely horse, comes from an astute stable, has a nice weight at 53kg and will be ridden by in-form Chad Ormsby. That adds up to a compelling each-way investment.
The classy mares Ombre Rose and Gaze create the issue. Where Stand Tall has raced in handicap grades, they have come through the top class weight-for-age form of the Hastings spring treble, including the Kelt Capital Stakes, where they performed with credit. Ombre Rose is definitely the better off of the pair at the weights, but both rate highly.
Race 1 is a potential problem - you have a handful of talented stayers racing over 1600m. The Cosmob (No5) is a 1600m specialist who leads and fights hard and if the likes of Chettak, Mirkola Lass and Black Panther give her too much start they may not have the speed to pick her up. If the odds are reasonable, go each-way.
Vincent Mangano (No1, R3) was always going to start hot favourite in the babies' race off the back of his unbeaten record, but when he drew barrier No1 he was guaranteed to start at very tight odds. Better value will be Nuke Time (No2). The No8 gate is awkward, but if he can get across and get cover he can make a nuisance of himself. He was impressive winning at the Taupo trials then should have won on debut when he struck trouble before being beaten a half a head and a long head. .
Race 5, the R80 1600m is a quality field. If you're taking trifectas throw in for a bit of value Sir Fortriss (No17), who is back in off the ballot. He has had only the six starts, but a couple of them have been beauts and with Chad Ormsby aboard from an inside gate he might spring a surprise and bulk up the trifecta. The Gaffer (No5), Occidentalis (No12), Taatyana (No11), Sequential (No9) and Gold Merit (No3) can all win without surprising. Terrific race.
You simply have to excuse Dorabella (No1, R6) her unplaced run in the Coupland's Bakeries Mile at Riccarton where she lost her chance being jammed up against the outside running rail on the home bend. Irlanda (No2) has made the necessary improvement between the ages of 3 and 4 and her two winning runs this preparation have been stylish. The wide draw could be a factor, but if she gets cover she is definitely the horse to beat. The barrier draw has lengthened the odds on a few - Zerello (No11) at No18 and Penny Florence (No9) one further out at 19 are not completely out of play, but it will take a terrific effort to win from out there. Smitten Kitten (No4) and Inshelucky (No13) are value runners.
Genuine Offer (No6, R7) looks the genuine deal. Her finishing efforts to win lately have been stunning and although up a grade for this there does not appear to be anything that is better. Both her winning runs recently have been at today's 2400m.
The sprint, Race 8, is perhaps a no-bet affair. It's tricky in the extreme. The race centres around class act Crossyourheart (No10) and how she has come through her first-up winning run at Avondale and whether as a spring 3-year-old she is tough enough for the older sprinters. This will be run at pace with Martini Red (No14) and Magic Tryst (No13) likely to be pouring it on. It might set up for something coming over the top from the 200m and there are four or five capable of doing it. No, happy to stay out of this one.
Plenty of value in the last - betting will be spread and you should get a $5 favourite. Needuask (No2, R10) is underrated and even though he has to carry 58kg this time, he rates highly.
There might be a bit of value in a couple of runners at Hastings today. Fourwinners (No13, R9) could be one of them. He probably should have beaten a very strong field on this track on Kelt Capital Day then got back in a big field at Ellerslie last time. Fresh up in the same race, Sandcastle (No9) might be considered for the trifecta.
* Rain is predicted for Auckland today. If it is substantial then you might have to adjust a little, but tracks are so firm underneath at the moment it will take considerable moisture to dramatically alter form. The Ellerslie track has been well irrigated.
