KEY POINTS:
Someone in high places must have lost money at the races lately.
We've had three major race days in the last two weeks, $200,000 Counties Cup day at Ellerslie two weeks ago, last Saturday's Sir James Fletcher Stakes and Wednesday's $200,000 Avondale Cup and all three have been undermined by rain at a time when overall we've been having the best spell of weather for this time of year in a decade.
And it may not be over yet.
Just when the Avondale track is drying from Wednesday's and Thursday's drenching and looked like being reasonable for tomorrow's $100,000 H S Dyke Avondale Guineas, we see a forecast for Auckland today of "showers developing, frequent later".
There are a lot of things you can change in life, but the weather ain't one of them, so punters will have to do their best and monitor weather and track close to today's big races.
Which makes the Pick6 difficult - the six-race jackpot closes two hours before the Avondale Guineas, which looks a given for Alamosa if the conditions are reasonable, but offers some real value if the track deteriorates and the favourite becomes vulnerable.
Given half decent footing Alamosa should simply be too good for the opposition. His form has all been around the topline 3-year-olds like Rios and The Pooka and he has courage to match his terrific level of ability.
It could even be a case that he's too good regardless of the track - but you'd still prefer to see him on top of the ground.
The only filly Run Roxy Run has a great will to win as she displayed at Tauranga last start. If Alamosa started to wobble late in the race if the track became wet, she could well prove the one to provide the biggest nuisance.
Six O'Clock News is highly regarded by the Busuttin stable, but his chances would depend on decent footing. Two of his four starts have been on rain-affected tracks and he hasn't been impressed.
The TAB might like to bet on what mood Bonaichi (No3, R1) shows up in. She was in no mood to be a racehorse when produced at Te Rapa last month and raced with little enthusiasm. Like many of the stock of Fusiachi Pagasus she seems to race best when fresh and the five weeks between races might see something better here. She is up to winning if she puts her mind to it. Southerner Only Love (No4) will appreciate the drop back from group racing last start.
Anissina (No7, R2) has done everything but win a race. Her two recent seconds were both on slow tracks, so a bit of rain may not hinder her.
Raadira (No4, R4) was so impressive in winning on debut it's easy to say she could do it again in R70 company. She wasn't greatly extended on her first visit to the races and this is not strong.
Askyourself (No1, R5) failed by only a neck to pull a fully extended Six O'Clock News back at Te Rapa last start and she doesn't strike one of that horse's class today. She needs only a touch of luck to break through.
The form on paper might look just average, but Vanderbeel (No7, R6) has been running good races lately. He's been getting to the line strongly, and will be suited by the 2200m. He would prefer a decent surface. Be with him if he gets it. No Limits (No9) is well up to this class and should be improved by a first-up effort at Hastings.
It's difficult to separate the main chances in race 7, the York Cup. At the weights there is little between Figure Of Speech (No1), Mirkola Lass (No2), Jovial Jock (No4) and Twinkling (No5). In situations like this value if often the best avenue, so perhaps base things around Jovial Jock and Twinkling.
The way Volitant (No9, R9) won at Paeroa last start, leading throughout, suggests that a rise in the ratings may not stop her.
The doubt will be if the rain arrives it might make it more difficult to lead - and therefore dampen her chances. Eye Me Up (No5) can handle the wet and struck a strong field at Riccarton last start.
A 2000m maiden race is not what you'd ideally look for to end a Pick6. It's difficult, but New Plymouth visitor Mexicana (No1, R10) went well enough in chasing Bula Baby home at Riccarton to say he can be right in this.
