KEY POINTS:
Perhaps appropriately, there are no good things on the punt for Wellington Cup day.
One of the better bets, though, is Cagney (No 6, R3). He has won three of his seven starts and has been handled with extreme patience by the Rogers family.
The benefit of that patience clearly showed when he scored a narrow but fabulous first-up win at Ellerslie on December 29, running the 1200m in a slick 1.9.21.
He has been given the right amount of time to recover from that run and although this is a nice field, the long home straight will give Cagney every opportunity to produce his determined finishing effort.
That was not a fluke win by Conversaad (No 2) at Awapuni - she got no luck when resuming. She seems to have paid the price in going up 3kg, but she still rates highly. Mary Ellen (No 4) finished last in the Telegraph, but there is no Seachange in this.
The form on paper of Makayla (No 9, R2) looks ordinary, but don't be put off by that. She's had no luck and some of those runs have been better than they read. She got flattened in the home straight last start at Awapuni and still managed to pick herself up late to be only 1.5 lengths away in fifth place. Trentham offers wide open spaces and if she gets luck today Makayla can employ her strong finish to telling effect.
Padlock (No 1) is going to get one for consistency eventually and Four Swords (No 7) went a good race for third on the first day with little room to work with late in the race.
Barring bad luck, the best 3-year-old fillies rise to the top in just about all the major races for their sex and Insouciant (No 1, R5), Keepa Cruisin (No 2) and Satinka (No 3) stand out in the $100,000 Desert Gold Stakes. Insouciant didn't fire in the Eight Carat at Ellerslie and Michael Walker is adamant the right-handed track was to blame. Back the reverse way again she will take some stopping. The barrier No 11 is interesting, but there is a long run down the back straight from the 1600m for Walker to get the filly organised.
Keepa Cruisin, who has a short, devastating sprint, looked as if she got to the front too soon when beaten a short neck and a nose by Satinka in the Eight Carat. She has freshened up nicely and this suits her as well. Satinka got a few favours to win the Eight Carat and Royal Stakes, but they were still good wins. Kaatoon (No 4) and Exquisite (No 7) are strong place hopes if you're looking to spice up the trifecta.
Even though he's won two of his last four starts Governor Bois (No 8) has been a victim of tightening in several races. He's a quality stayer and he was luckless when he finished 11th, beaten 3.25 lengths behind Pasta Post in the City Of Auckland Cup. This is a nice race for him and he has a comfortable weight and barrier draw.
Difficult to say a lot more about the $350,000 Wellington Cup. If Pasta Post's body holds together and he gets the 3200m, he wins. There are no absolute good things and Pasta Post has at least those two obstacles to overcome, plus racing's luck. But he's answered every critic and you can't make a case against him.
Resolution (No 12) looks to finally get a race that should ideally suit, if he can dodge the traffic problems that seem to regularly find him. Young Centaur (No 8) is an emerging topline stayer with no downside. He can come off any speed and the last 50m of his Awapuni win last start under 58kg was stylish. He drops to 53.5kg for this. Three Chimneys (No 4) and Mirkola Lass (No 2) are other chances, but let's be honest, there's one horse we'll be watching.
Just how good Courtney (No 8, R8) might be has yet to be established, but you don't win even maiden races by 7.5 lengths without being pushed right out, unless you have a fair bit of ability. She spelled after that and has covered too much extra ground in the two starts she's had since returning. If Lisa Cropp can find her a comfortable run without covered ground we'll probably see the real Courtneytoday.
The form on paper of No Limits (No 3) does not tell the full story. He has a horror barrier draw this time, but Leith Innes might be able to find a way around it.
Similar to the Cup, there's only one place your eyes are going to be at the 250m in the $250,000 Thorndon Mile - and that's in front. That's where Sir Slick (No 1, R9) is going to be, about to see if he can successfully shoulder his mammoth 60.5kg for another group one victory. Sir Slick loves Trentham, which perfectly fits his racing style and he's going to give it one real shake today. There's liable to be a stack of them chasing hard from the 200m and Sterling Prince (No 12), Shariat's On Fire (No 10), Final Reality (No 6), Dezigna (No 3) and Cog Hill (No 2) are probably going to be among them.
Something usually stands out in the Douro Cup, but not this year. Manonamission (No 7, R10) is finally delivering what he's always promised and the race sets up nicely for him. The value is definitely Marty Boy (No 8). Yes, he looked to go just okay when third last week, but it was his first run for five weeks and he could be a fitter horse this time.
At Ellerslie tomorrow, Steel (No 1, R1) should open the programme for punters, albeit at short odds. If he's the Derby hope his connections claim, he has to win this.
One of the better bets should be Possum (No,3, R3). She has already won one of these races and was unlucky to lose it at Te Rapa. Last start her apprentice rider allowed her to drift too far off the speed and she has to put up a good effort to run second. She will be value because Cotillion (No 1) will start favourite off the back of two stylish wins lately.
Red Ruler (No 3, R4) andPretty Vegas (No 2) look a strong quinella. Pretty Vegas was unlucky in both the Eight Carat Classic and the Royal Stakes and Red Ruler ... well, he looks headed right to the top.
To go close in the last, Keffiya (No 3) has only to produce the effort she managed in the Royal Stakes where she covered the world and still ran a close third. Watch out for Avancer (No 2). He refused to settle in his first middle distance test in the Great Northern Guineas at Ellerslie and will appreciate dropping back to 1600m here.
