KEY POINTS:
Local knowledge suggests that the Hastings track for today's $250,000 Stoney Bridge Stakes programme will play much more even than for Mudgway Stakes day.
The Mudgway track definitely had two slow lanes close to the inside rail, making leading for the most part difficult.
Unless there is overnight moisture, the locals say there will be no bias today. That will be significant in a couple of races, particularly the $75,000 Highview Stakes.
The firmer the footing, the better it will suit Seachange in the big race. The only value will be in the trifecta and Veloce Bella could inject a few dollars into the 1-2-3 result. Her winning run in lesser company on Mudgway day was remarkable and although jumping sharply in class she needs only to reproduce that effort to be right in this.
Stand Seachange out to win, put Veloce Bella in all trifectas and mix up Cog Hill, Princess Coup, Sir Slick and J'Adane.
Anahera (No10, R1) turned on a terrific debut run for fifth on Mudgway day. He got taken on in front and finished only 2.5 lengths from a real smart one in Rios. And if he hadn't drifted down to the rail in the final 200m he might have been right in the finish. Tariq (No8) is useful and Johnnie The Sand (No1) comes in well with a further 4kg claim.
Barrier draws confuse Race 2. Yanna Marie (No8) and Black Orlov (No1) are as good as any in the field, but have drawn very wide. Don't leave them out of trifectas though. The barrier draw puts Epping (No2) right in contention.
You need only to remember the group one Ford Diamond Stakes at Ellerslie to put El Cuento (No1, R3) on top today. The classy colt sat three deep that day and went under by half a length to Alamosa. He's resuming with 58kg aboard, but his class will carry him close. D'Elcatraz (No4) had to clear home-straight traffic to issue his challenge when resuming on Mudgway day and his second placing was excellent. He will be improved and gives the impression today's 1400m will suit better than 1200m.
Difficult to know why Cadillac (No1, R5) went out the 14th favourite of 15 runners when coming back from a spell on Mudgway day. It was no surprise when he came from last to flash home into third behind dashing all-the-way winner Richard Beymer. He probably wouldn't want to get as far back against this lot, but if he can stay two or three places closer, he will prove difficult to handle. Look for a big fresh-up run from Victorious Dancer (No2). He showed good potential last preparation and this looks a nice race for him.
Hands up for Race 6, the Highview - there is so much 3-year-old filly talent it blinds reason. When in doubt go for a bit of value and Satinka (No2) at nearly double figure odds represents value, even against a red hot field. She has remarkable speed and if the rail is playing fair she could prove difficult even for some of these to pull back. Stablemates Special Mission (No1) and Insouciant (No6) are both likely to be challenging at the 250m and Diamond Deck (No3) will be running at them all late. Not a race you can get confident about, but a wonderful spectacle.
Kay's Awake (No2, R7) is going to find today's fillies' and mares' race a lot easier than chasing Seachange around in the Mudgway. She is a high class mare in any company and looks a great each-way prospect here. Lightly raced Irlanda (No9) also has plenty of class. She showed up when second to runaway winner Mr Omegen at the Taupo trials.
The safest bet is probably in the last - local mare Lilakyn (No1, R10). The 58kg is as much as you like to see mares carrying in handicaps, but she had 57.5kg when a fast-finishing fourth to Samurai over 1600m on Mudgway day and this 2000m suits a lot better. If Shane Marr decides to run Ombre Rose (No4) here instead of the Stoney Bridge the southern mare is in with a real chance. Her fifth to Samurai was stylish and is another who will be suited by the distance. Ben Hogan's (No6) run in the Merial Metric Mile last week was better than it looked.
* TAB bookmakers yesterday got giddy taking bets on Magic Cape in the $70,000 Jim & John Evans Classic at Pukekohe today.
The TAB opened Magic Cape at $7 and had him into $4.50 yesterday afternoon after a series of big bets.
Punters clearly believe that with only 52.5kg on his back as a group one winner, Magic Cape is beautifully placed.
The Pukekohe track, in the mid-4 range earlier in the week had firmed into 3.5 mid-afternoon yesterday and the course manager believed a reading close to 3 would be possible by the start of racing today if the weather stays fine.
But rain is predicted for Auckland. Whether or not it arrives means night and day to the form. Magic Cape is one horse that can handle an "off" track, but he is second-up from a spell and would not want too much moisture.
