Mike Dillon: Katy Keen looks good value at Matamata

Weather patterns dictate that value is the key to punting this weekend.

Matamata and Hawera will be affected by the rain.

It makes the $50,000 Wealleans Matamata Cup interesting.

Class mare Katy Keen comes down to 55kg for this race and although she's no good thing she rates highly with 3kg above the minimum weight.

The outside barrier draw is probably not a disadvantage late in the programme and Katy Keen will represent good value. Don't forget she created a seven-straight winning sequence last season. She could be on the verge of similar form.

There is such value in this race that quinella and trifecta betting should be the way to travel.

The track might be a touch too heavy for Elblitzem if it continued raining overnight, but if the footing was reasonable he is a must include.

His overall form is probably the best in the race. Point Guard and Danz Star are big players if the track comes up heavy and in a confusing race you can't count Mill Vinnie out of contention after seeming to pull up remarkably well from his Te Rapa win last start. Try for the trifecta.

Mercury Mistress (No11, R2) looks a good bet. Don't forget she's already a winner on this home track of hers, only to find the race was cancelled because of barrier malfunction. Her run behind St Germaine in stakes company at Te Rapa last start was not that bad and she drops back to maiden class here. What beats her should win.

The R90 1200m is an exceptional field. Local Spirits Bay (No3, R3) is the type that will run a big race fresh. She has performed in better company than this and has a trial to fit her for this. If the track is heavy it could be a problem, but she is classy and worth following.

In a wonderful field for this type of meeting, Attalla (No 2) rates highly, so does Gin Dartre (No 1), Bella Valentina (No4) and Bankside Belle (No5). The most intriguing race of the day.

In a field that does not look that strong, Inquisition (No4, R5) looks a big chance. His sixth in a stronger field at Pukekohe last start was pretty good and with his recent win on heavy footing he rates highly. Prime Choice (No9) is a chance and so is Azamara (No8).

Montjee (No5, R6) found Strapped For Cash too strong last start, but is on the verge of his own good open company form. He likes rain affected footing and on his home track here looks a good prospect.

Belle De Jeu (No5, R8) looked a filly of exceptional ability winning fresh at Te Aroha and the step up in class may not be a problem.

The value runner is Sunshine Sally (No10).

Class counts for plenty and don't be surprised if Culminate (No1, R8) at Hawera overcomes her wide barrier draw in the $80,000 Postponed Classic.

A very heavy track will not help her, but her class will. Her fifth to Daffodil on the middle day at Hastings was terrific given the pattern of the race. That is great form going into a race like this.

Yanna Zarie (No2) and Il Quello Veloce (No11) are strong chances in a wonderful race.