KEY POINTS:
There's an old saying that there is no such thing as a certainty in jumps racing.
That wisdom may have stood the test of time, but Fair King looks close to a good thing in today's $40,000 Mad Butcher's Pakuranga Hunt Cup.
And by the end of this winter, certainly by next year, we could be saying Fair King is the best steeplechaser we've seen in years.
He's already unbeaten at the game and very few get through to this level without a spanking.
He's so talented and so well at the moment that he surprised even his owner and trainer Ann Browne by winning over hurdles as a lead-up to this, something she thought he wasn't capable of.
Weight is a killer for jumpers over these longer distances, but Fair King, still on the way up the ladder, has a comfortable 64.5kg today, only 1.5kg above the minimum weight, which will be a great assist.
Stablemate Primo Canera, getting fitter, is a big threat along with Just To It in what should be a wonderful prelude to the $100,000 Great Northern Steeplechase two weeks today.
Art Link (No3, R1) is an interesting runner in a big field of hurdlers to start the programme. He looked good finishing third at Riccarton in his jumping debut and should have learned from the experience.
Danz Star (No1, R2) and El Perez (No2) are at the top of the handicap in the sprint, but they've more than earned their weight. Danz Star has 58kg, but he has Opie Bosson to help him carry it. El Perez has needed his two runs back from a long break and should be a lot fitter for this and is real quality in the mud at his best. Quinella them and throw in Material Girl (No5) for the trifecta.
Bruce Almighty (No4, R5) is a good each-way investment in the amateur riders' event. He has maintained his form well and his rider Rayna Johansen is more experienced than most.
El Cid (No1, R7) keeps going up in class and keeps winning. With Danielle Johnson's 3kg claim off his 58kg there is no reason why he can't do it again. The heaviest of ground does not seem to worry him.
There are a few chances in the 1400m maiden, Race 8, and not the least of them is debut runner Reaping (No7). He won nicely at the Te Teko trials and might be useful.
John Wheeler should have a terrific day at his local New Plymouth meeting today.
Sugar Train (No2, R7) looks as though she has been waiting to step up to 1600m and should be suited. She has been finishing her races off well and Shannon Doyle's 2kg allowance will be very handy. Hi Yo Gotcha (No7) could be the value runner.
Another Wheeler runner, All In Trouble (No1, R5), who should possibly be re-named Always In Trouble, won well at Riccarton despite taking charge coming out of the gates and ending up in the unusual role of pacemaker. He has plenty of ability when he puts it together and Shannon Doyle's 2kg brings his 58kg down to a more comfortable 56kg.
Wheeler has Governor Bois (No1, R9) in the last and he will probably start warm favourite. He's almost certainly the best horse in the field, but he prefers ground better than he's going to strike. Take a saver on Floor Play (No7). Forget he went around at Te Rapa last start.
