KEY POINTS:
Tricky day's punting at Matamata - a couple of races that are difficult to bet into and one or two confusing line-ups.
The feature, the $120,000 Robin, Duke Of Bedford Matamata Breeders' Stakes is a no-bet affair unless you're happy to take the $1.20 short odds on Crossyourheart, or you're prepared to include several $25 or $30 shots in multiple bets to try for a half decent quinella or trifecta.
They have yet to breed the horse that is unbeatable, but Crossyourheart has been so dominant against what looks to be the next best juveniles that only bad luck can topple her today.
Two-year-olds can very rarely sustain outstanding form at the top level for lengthy periods because of the pressure on immature bodies.
What is saving Crossyourheart is that she is so dominant she has yet to be tested and has therefore not had a hard run. It will be a surprise if she has one today.
There are promising sorts in the other juvenile event, the $60,000 Fairview Ford Slipper - El Cuento, Mallinson Road and Pierre Joseph stand out. El Cuento (No3, R5) won on debut then finished an excellent third to The Pooka in stakes company at Trentham.
Mallinson Road (No6) is the value - his luck has been dreadful. He drew behind Crossyourheart in the $500,000 Classique at Te Rapa, before that got back in an on-pace dominated race at the Ellerslie carnival and even had to overcome difficulties when second to Crossyourheart at Ellerslie in November. He is due a turn. Pierre Joseph (No7) is a very promising Redoute's Choice colt with Stephen McKee who suggested big things when he finished strongly into second behind Crossyourheart on debut at Ellerslie on January 13.
The 4kg Johannah Smellie takes off Lebanese Lawn (No1, R2) will be significant. She has been caught by narrow margins in each of her last four starts after leading and drops from the 58kg she lumped at Ellerslie last Saturday to 54kg this time. Being a leader there is little wrong an inexperienced apprentice can do. Backing up in a week after a tough run is an ask, but she is on her home track and has drawn nicely.
Her stablemate Overflo (No6, R3) proved costly when a beaten favourite at Ellerslie on December 30, but she may have still been feeling the effects of her remarkable win on Avondale Cup day. She has had eight weeks to freshen and on her home track makes a lot of appeal. The small field will help balance her back-running style.
Inshelucky (No6, R4) has had the worst possible luck this campaign. She could have won any one of her last four starts and surely her luck has to turn soon. This is a very good field she strikes - Pinsoir (No7) won stylishly at Trentham last time; Tatlock (No5) had to sit wide without cover at Te Rapa and still fought hard for third and McCahon (No9) is underrated.
The form of The Myth (No9, R8) on paper 6-7-4-5-2-6 doesn't do a lot for you, but she is a mare of good ability and being part owned by the main sponsor of the day, the Duchess Of Bedford, it would be appropriate if she got over the line first here. Her last-start sixth at Trentham was probably better than it looked. Stablemates Pulborough (No2) and You're My Angel (No3) might be the toughest to beat.
Backing a maiden running in a field of winners generally doesn't lead to much, but Velvet And Satin (No8, R10) might be a touch more of an advantage than that. Her last four races have been at group two (3) and group one. She tailed the field in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic at Te Rapa last start, but you can forget that, she was wiped out early and stayed back. A wide barrier draw here will do her no favours, but she has the staying talent to make a statement.
Use The Force (No10) did well to finish within one length off Gallions Reach in a stronger field at Te Rapa last start.
Difficult to predict the demise of Sir Slick (No1, R8) in the $150,000 weight-for-age at Otaki. He has had no lingering problems from the foot soreness he experienced when he took fright and repeatedly kicked a concrete wall after winning at Te Rapa last start and was such a fit horse going into that group one race he could have got away with reduced work. The run of Jokers Wild (No9) will be keenly watched and Pins'N' Needles (No5) is an underrated mare.
He Kin Danske (No3, R10) is one of the best emerging horses around and it will surprise if he doesn't show that yet again in the last at Otaki. It took an exceptional effort from a very good type in Charliehorse to topple him at Te Rapa last start. But there are no Charliehorses in this race.
