Mike Dillon: Grand stage beckons again for Nicholman

Counter Punch's breakdown yesterday puts a completely different slant on today's $57,500 FMG Grand National Steeplechase.

Scans yesterday showed the Mark Oulaghan-trained jumper had strained a tendon and he will be out of racing for a year.

Counter Punch was a commanding $2.60 favourite on the TAB's fixed odds book early yesterday and his withdrawal has seen a drastic reshuffle of the odds, with Bennyosler firming in to $4, Asset Stripper into $4.50 and Nicholman $5.

There was some doubt about Counter Punch getting the extreme 5600m even though he's a solid stayer and is unbeaten in steeplechases.

Now you look for the real stayers.

New favourite Bennyosler hasn't been asked to go anywhere near that distance range, even though John Wheeler, like Mark Oulaghan, is a magnificent conditioner of stayers.

You suspect Bennyosler will cope and he probably will.

But there is a book full of horses that looked that they might cope with the distance of the Grand National, but couldn't.

Some even went close, but not close enough.

With the Great Northern Steeplechase three times over the feared Ellerslie Hill there is reason to understand why some horses can't see it out.

But, remarkably, the Grand National over less testing country sees just as many get breathless.

Perhaps that's because everyone knows how tough the Great Northern is and few that aren't qualified for the distance try it, where traditionally a greater number have attempted Riccarton's historical race.

Bennyosler will give a great sight, but at the respective odds, Nicholman might be a better risk as an each-way proposition.

We know he can get the distance because he should have won last year's Grand National.

It was not a great performance by his rider that day and he was run down narrowly in the closing 200m by Just A Swagger, who was brilliantly ridden.

Englishman George Strickland gets the job this time and wouldn't he like to win after crashing on the home bend when he and Rioch had Wednesday's Grand National Hurdles seemingly won.

Bennyosler was narrowly beaten by Counter Punch last week in his steeplechasing debut and clearly has an outstanding career ahead.

It will be a great race.

The Pukekohe races this afternoon look tough to sort out.

An each-way bet in the first could be Monte Cervino (No 4). He got back on the inside at Te Rapa last start and it was difficult all day to win from there. There was a lot more to like about the way he left maidens at Tauranga five weeks earlier and if you can get his Te Rapa performance out of your mind he is worth a look.

John Gray (No 3, R2) has at times looked very good. He's got a future for sure and the big open spaces of Pukekohe will admirably suit his racing style, which generally involves a sweeping finish. There is plenty of recent form in this race. Bert (No 6) is jumping from a R70 win to a R90 here - a big leap - but his earlier good form had been at the R80 level.

The racing pattern at Te Rapa two weeks ago, which had a narrow strip you needed to be on, didn't seem to suit Hurricane Mickey (No 2, R3).

He was a dashing winner at Avondale the start before and he fits into this race nicely, dropping back to R80 from R90. Pactus (No 3) has been finding the line strongly for minor placings and this track will suit his racing style.

Stepping up to a middle distance for the first time is never easy on horses, but Alderney (No 1, R4) has been getting to the finish of his races so well over 1600m he has a good chance to pull it off. His reasonably good draw should mean he gets an economical run for most of the way. At The Top (No 3) deserves a win.

Karen's Keeper (No 1, R7) has drawn wide gates in his last two starts and has done well for a second and a third. He gets a more favourable alley this time and should be right in the play throughout. Little Alfie Brown (No 6) hasn't had a lot of luck in just two starts.

The more testing the track the better for Blakmando (No 6, R8). Things haven't gone exactly right for him this preparation and he's well up to winning the last.