Mike Dillon: Golden Silence to repay those who keep the faith

Mike Dillon

Unfortunately for punters, luck in the running deserted Golden Silence at Te Rapa last start.

They can get their hard-earned cash back in Race 4 at Ellerslie today.

If Golden Silence hadn't been held up in the home straight he almost certainly would have won at Te Rapa and yet the pattern that day was not entirely suiting his back-running style.

It should today and if the predicted rain arrives before his race, Golden Silence will be even better suited.

Justawins (No 4, R1) comes back from a good break in the opener. She looked massively talented as a mudder in winning two of her three career starts in the heaviest of ground last winter before failing on a dead surface on her home track at Tauranga, when she could have been coming to the end of her preparation. She would almost certainly prefer a wet, loose surface so she will appeal even more if the rain arrives this morning. Throw A Paddy (No 5) is probably not far away from showing something.

Stats on winter tracks are crucial. When she finished third at Tauranga last start Irish Colleen (No 8, R2) suffered her first defeat on rain-affected footing and her half-length defeat was pretty stylish. She has won twice at Ellerslie and has drawn nicely so has all the ticks to make her a sound bet. You sense that Brecon Heights (No 5) is racing into winning form. He challenged on the inside at Trentham last week where the footing was at its worst so his second was a smart effort.

Race 3, the 3-year-old event, looks a nightmare for the punt and could be a trap. You should always go for value under such circumstances and one worth looking at for a price is Roman Toia (No 5, R3). The 58kg over 1400m last start prove too tough, but 54.5kg at 1200m is a bit different. The wide barrier draw for Pocket Diary (No 2) may not be too much of a disadvantage.

As mentioned earlier, the pattern at Te Rapa on May 16 did not entirely suit back runners, so Harry Tait (No 5, R5) did well to come from last to finish fifth. He will this time get a 4kg apprentice allowance.

When Pindy (No 1, R6) strikes form he generally holds it. He didn't find his best last preparation, but he was right back in business with an impressive win first-up at Tauranga last start. But he won't find this easy with 58kg, especially giving Taking The Mickey (No 2) 2kg. This is a very good, competitive field and Castle Heights (No 7) shouldn't be taken lightly. He hasn't raced since the Wellington Cup in January, but an Avondale barrier trial victory tells you he's ready for this.

Lord Carson (No 2, R7) has had a couple of minor issues that have kept him away from the races lately, but that won't stop him being a big player here. It would probably be an advantage if the footing was not too testing for him in what will be his first race in four weeks. Let's Fight (No 1) can probably be forgiven his failure when favourite at Pukekohe last start.

El Perez (No 2, R8) is in the right sort of form to take the Cornwall Handicap. He is a truly classy winter handicapper and showed when second to Point Guard at 1600m last week he was a breath away from another major victory. Even with 57kg he will take beating, particularly if the footing is wet and loose. Indikator (No 7) and Prized Touch (No 4) are strong chances, although the better the footing the better the chances of Prized Touch.

New Zealand, and in particular Taranaki, holds the key to this afternoon's A$400,000 ($502,000) Queensland Oaks.

On lead-up racing, Ekstreme looks very hard to beat but don't be surprised if fellow 'naki filly Juice proves her Queensland form all wrong at much longer odds for top horseman Michael Rodd