KEY POINTS:
Neville Couchman deserves a medal.
Four months of continuous bad luck with Gee I Jane would have most of us doing something other than training racehorses.
Couchman has simply waited for his luck to turn.
That surely has to be in today's $100,000 Darley Plate at Ellerslie.
The high class sprinting mare's form on paper - 0-6-2-6-7 - is simply not accurate.
She was carted back through the field by tiring runners behind Australia's best sprinter Miss Andretti at Moonee Valley last start.
"I know she was only seventh, but she really zipped home the last 100m," said Couchman yesterday. "Michael [Rodd] said he thought he could have been second with a clear run."
Gee I Jane can really steam home off a fast pace and with Solvini and Jazzella engaged today that looks a given.
The positives are all there. Ellerslie is not an easy track to lead on for Solvini compared to some, Jazzella is coming off a brilliant but hard-fought first-up victory and Imananabaa is badly off in the weights compared to Gee I Jane.
Only a short neck separated them when they finished second and third to Donna Rosita in the Railway at Ellerslie and you can make a case both could have won the race.
Gee I Jane meets the filly 4.5kg better off this time.
Late yesterday Cambridge trainer Paul Duncan had not finally decided whether he would run Sunrize in Race 4 or Race 8, but was leaning towards the former as much for the 2200m against 2100m as anything else.
Whatever race he starts in Sunrize is going to take dome stopping. After an interrupted preparation the dour stayer had his first middle distance run on this track on February 17 and on a day that favoured on-pace runners, he flashed home from last on the bend into third behind Tadan. He has to have improved from that and provided they get along at a reasonable bat without a natural pacemaker engaged, he is the one to be on.
Narredson (No9, R1) looked good motoring home into a handy fifth over 1400m at Ellerslie last start. He jumps up a class for this, but drops 2kg and will appreciate the 1600m. Could be an okay way to start the day.
Race 2 is tricky - Aquila Carrera (No4) has drawn wide at the 1200m barrier and even fresh might find the distance a touch short. But she is very smart and worth a dollar here with the idea of following up.
In a smart line-up, Millstone (No7), Hitchcock (No1) and Cagney (No5) are huge chances to be part of the trifecta.
It's no surprise that in a $25,000 maiden race you're going to get plenty of chances. Sweet Cid (No16, R5) is one of them and a win after two career thirds would be deserved. Yawhcra (No10) and Saint Zede (No6) are right in it.
Hotspurs (No8) with Opie Bosson aboard is the safest bet in Race 6, but if you want a bit more value Hagar (No1), despite his wide draw, can still be in it. He showed his toughness when he came out of the outside gate, disputed a decent pace thereby making the race for the favourite My Hangover, yet still held third at New Plymouth last time. Moss Keen (No13) is another value runner.
If the decision is to start Sunrize in Race 8 he looks the one. In his absence the race looks very even, but don't drop Young Centaur (No5) for his beaten run at Te Rapa last start - it wasn't all his own fault.
The Derby is always a great betting contest because luck is such a vital ingredient. You can make a case for each of the four favourites, but Magic Cape (No1, R9) looks the safest bet. The knockers say he'll get too far back, but with Opie Bosson on board you wouldn't guarantee that. It will be a surprise if there is not a genuine pace and if so, Magic Cape can get over the top of them from the 400m.
How the race is run will be critical. Mettre En Jeu (No4) has shown he could be a risk if ridden in behind a few runners - he is such a long strider he is much better in the open. A mild surprise will be if Lisa Cropp does not try for the lead or the parked-out position. He is one talented colt and don't be surprised if he has a couple of lengths on them at some stage of the home straight.
Logic, and the Championship Stakes, tells you Redoute's Dancer (No3) is a massive chance and the filly Veloce Bella (No16) needs only to get the right economical run to launch what is a devastating final sprint.
Don't miss this one, it'll be a beaut.
The last is not easy, but Sir Fortriss (No4, R10) deserves a look. He covered a lot of extra ground from a wide gate at Avondale back on January 29 and has a horror gate again, but the talent is there. Midnight Prince (No8) is definitely the safest bet.
