KEY POINTS:
Let the weather guide your punting today.
The form will be night and day depending on whether the predicted rain arrives in sufficient quantity to change the Te Rapa track conditions.
If it does, Baltaine (No1, R4) looks a terrific proposition on a programme that could throw up some surprise results in the wet.
Baltaine resumed with a nice win at Ellerslie, assisted somewhat by an apprentice allowance.
His rider that day, Daniel Hain, is required this time for stable runner Belthazar, but Baltaine will get a similar 2kg claim through Lee Callaway. That brings him down to 56kg and it's a case of the wetter the better for him.
Veil (No4) chased Baltaine home at Ellerslie and meets him on 1kg better terms this time.
With only one length between them at Ellerslie you can make a case they should finish closer together, but you can perhaps make a stronger claim for a repeat quinella result.
In the wet Zamfir (No10) makes appeal for the trifecta, but if the rain doesn't arrive St Verdi (No9) will take beating.
Assuming we get it wet, Alberto (No3, R5) and stablemate Chartreuse (No12) come right into calculations in the $80,000 Windsor Park Breeders Stakes.
Alberto is not far off the best 3-year-olds when there is a bit of give in the ground. He does not require a lot of moisture to perform up to his best, whereas Chartreuse has shown she is best when it's heavy.
Te Rapa requires sustained rain to get very bad and Alberto is probably the best of the two today on that basis.
Look out for a big run from Keep The Message (No1) if it rains. He is super talented in the right conditions and although he's dropping back to 1200m from the 2400m of the Mercedes Derby on March 3, he's the type that can do it.
The likes of Jazzella (No8) and Magic Tryst (No11), the two favourites on a firm surface, will struggle if it gets wet. Brianna (No9), with a win in the slow, is perhaps worth including in multiples.
Sable (No11, R6) can come right into the frame if it's wet. She grows two more legs when it rains and on 53kg she looks well placed in the open handicap. The last time she struck an appropriate track she won three starts back at Ellerslie.
Generated (No12) looked like he was going up to win at Ellerslie last start and peaked the final bit. That was his first run in two months and he should be fitter this time. He has yet to win on rain-affected footing, but he has five times placed in those conditions.
Ceejay (No7) is a touch underrated and could be value in the trifecta in his first start back since mid January.
The feature, the $120,000 Travis Stakes, is very tough. Last-start group one winner Captivate (No1, R8) can handle a rain-affected track, but this is her first attempt at 2000m and it is not ideal to be trying it in testing conditions.
Lilakyn (No2) has the class to win, but there is a slight question mark over her fitness, and perhaps the best each-way prospect is Vercors (No7). Her eighth in the Breeders Stakes at Te Aroha was sound. She was slow away and made ground nicely late in a race that was dominated by the speed. She looks ready for the 2000m here.
Mirkola Lass (No6) and Thee Auld Hussie (No3) are sound chances.
Danielle Johnson pulls 4kg off the back of Belle Joie (No1, R2). She can race handy, which will be an advantage, and she makes appeal with 54kg in a race she drops back a grade for.
Eva Beaver (No2) carries her full 58kg, but she has been in solid form and fresh runner Pindy (No11) has the right credentials to be a nuisance.
Race three is the toughest all day. There are so many chances, one of them being the Lance O'Sullivan-trained Takeitall (No9). He ran a useful race in the group one Champions Mile and drops considerably in grade for this.
If the track is not too bad early in the programme Makutuwai (No14) can bounce back. He is such a big, long strider that the wet track late in the day at Ellerslie last start was against him. He will probably get away with it better on this track. If there is no significant rain he is the one to beat.
Ististar (No7) is value and in an even line-up you can't ignore Kirra Sand (No1) and Sand Gate (No2) and the chances don't end there.
Provided conditions are not too bad late in the day Kate Cross (No5, R9) and Tudor Princess (No7) are handy chances and watch for a possible late run from Thunder Road (No12), who goes well when fresh and can handle rain.
