Mike Dillon: Ellerslie track good in spite of weather

They won't believe it from the Waikato, but the Ellerslie track was late yesterday in remarkably good condition.

Tipping what Auckland's weather overnight would do would be the riskiest bet all week, but if it played true to most of yesterday, the Ellerslie surface today won't be too bad.

"The rating this morning was a slow 7 and given a reasonable run with the weather a dead 6 would not be out of the question," said Auckland Racing Club racing manager Andrew Castles last night.

"But if we had the weather we are hoping for we'd probably still rate it a slow 7 in the morning simply because showers are predicted early in the day, clearing to good weather."

One thing's for certain - the conditions today will not be anywhere near as bad as they would be on most of the Waikato tracks, where considerably more rain has fallen this week.

Walking the Ellerslie surface yesterday, there was moisture in it, but strong winds were drying it and unless the forecast is wrong, mudders won't be greatly assisted.

It may mean that Aspinal (No2, R7) will take her place in the Soliloquy Stakes. A badly rain-affected track would see her withdrawn, but co-trainer Tony Pike said yesterday a decent surface could see the promising filly retain her place.

Aspinal has had her battles with temperament, but is improving and showed a lot of grit to win at Te Rapa last Friday week. She'll get her chance if she lines up. Tigress (No6) is making a big step up from Paeroa maiden class, but she has ability. This is not an easy race to win second time to the races, but don't leave her out of multiples.

Seven Schillings (No1) is better than her failure at Hastings, where the speed-dominated contest didn't suit, and in a race with a million chances, is worth including. The real value is Posh Bec (No17). She got a long way off them at Wanganui last time, but made impressive ground late and steps to 1400m for this.

One of the better bets all day should be Vonusti (No6, R4). He had problems when in work last campaign and clearly is over them. His fresh-up win at Ellerslie last start was nothing short of spectacular and he had only to produce that again to win this. Track conditions will determine the opposition's chances, but Richard Beymer (No1) would need something to go wrong not to be in the trifecta, even with his 59kg topweight. His chances will depend on the rail running favourably and the first three races will determine that.

A few of these races are going to be determined by conditions. One that may not be is Race 9 in which Nicole Amy (No10) makes a lot of appeal. Yes, she's jumping up to R90, but everything she's done suggests she'll cope with that. She was a good thing beaten when second after covering ground on this track last start and looks better placed under 54kg here, 3kg less than last start. Plenty of chances here with Mathias (No7) and Zoomin (No1) making appeal.

The Bonecrusher Stakes (R8) is a nightmare. Working out what will start favourite is a $3 shot at best. The race is late on the programme and the potentially used track might suit Bear Heart (No1), who is greatly improved for his first-up fifth behind The Hombre at Hastings in a speed-oriented race. He doesn't mind a rain-affected surface and the fact he finds the line will still suit. This and the Soliloquy Stakes are overall a headache for punters, but Wanganui Guineas winner Warrentherooster (No2) deserves respect and Credit Crunch (No6) is green, but talented.

You might not have a lot left late in the programme, but if you have El Gitano (No5, R10) is a get-out in the last. He has been running into one or two that have been too good, but looks well placed as an each-way value bet in this. La Souvnir (No15) is a value each-way bet to get into the trifecta.