Mike Dillon: El Presidente can't be unlucky twice running at Ruakaka

The line goes, stay with the locals at Ruakaka.

It's generally not bad advice and El Presidente in Race 5 there today might go a way towards proving the wisdom of the theory.

El Presidente has looked a coming smart stayer and didn't get the luck he needed when beaten a head by stablemate Jet Setter at the last Ruakaka meeting.

He's drawn No 1 this time and stayers sometimes need luck when they come out of that gate, but on the basis he can't be unlucky twice running, we'll go with him today.

Seeya Monday (No 9, R2) was beaten only half a length on the course last meeting after looking likely to win. She gets a 3kg apprentice allowance this time through Ethan Dalley and that will allow her the chance to break through for her first win.

Monaco Consul (No 2, R4) confirmed his big private reputation when he stormed home to win a maiden race at Ellerslie last start. He's naturally up a grade, but if the plans for him are even half right he should make the step up. He probably still has a few things to learn, but he's getting there.

The Spring Plate, Race 7, is a nightmare. Co-trainer Murray Baker is worried The Heckler (No 5) is a bit young and tender for his older opposition. If that proves right, where do you look? The 1200m might be well short of Mill Duckie's best, but she is real class and could get away with it in a fresh-up run. She can really get to the line late in her races and the small field will probably allow her to sit back off these and finish off. Fascinating race and one that shouldn't be missed - the form out of it will have a major bearing in the next few months.

Kool Kid (No 4) didn't have a lot of luck when a close-up fourth on this track last meeting. He's got a nice draw again and although there are a few chances here, he should be a very solid each-way chance.

At the Marton meeting at Awapuni, Andrew Scott's debut filly Our Dream Catcher (No 13, R2) makes appeal. She's drawn out a fraction, but if she shows the same zip that saw her a clear-cut Te Teko barrier trials winner she should go close. Rampant (No 1) has the experience now and looks a danger. He cost himself dearly by being slow away in both his starts so far.

Southern Heights (No 16, R3) drew 12 of 13 on debut at Foxton and paid the price for that and also for her lack of raceday experience and her second was a big effort. It won't be easy from No 17 of 18 runners if there's a full field today, but she has talent.

If the odds are reasonable, have something on her, watch her closely and follow her up - she can only get better. There are plenty of chances in this race and the odds should be reasonable with the barrier draw taken into account.

Track conditions will play a big part in the chances of Johnny D'Cash (No 5, R7). The Awapuni track yesterday was bordering on good, but some rain was forecast between early morning and midday. Manawatu racing manager Brent Wall was guarded on what might eventuate.

"Everyone would be delighted if they saw the track today, but it might not take a lot of rain to quickly downgrade it. We've had a very wet winter and there hasn't been a lot of drying lately because we've had a lot of still weather, which is bizarre for Palmerston North."

If the rain comes and downgrades the footing, Johnny D'Cash is going to be suited. The Ellerslie track last time didn't suit back runners and he's a better horse this left-handed way around.

The group three $70,000 Merial Mile is a great betting race. Christmas might come early if you get the trifecta right. High Octane (No 8, R8) is a trifecta must. He always puts in, is dead fit for this race and looks nicely placed. Then you probably have to have Six O'Clock News (No 2), Elblitzem (No 9), Can't Keeper Down (No 17) and Alagant Satin (No 18).

Alagant Satin is one Al Akbar horse that prefers a decent track.

If she gets that, don't discard her, she was only three lengths from Tavistock in the Mudgway and drops from 56.5kg to 52.5kg.