Mike Dillon: Drying track could prove tricky for some

The drying Ellerslie track might put a dent in some of the form patterns for today's meeting.

The way the track walked yesterday afternoon, the footing should race close to true for at least the first half of today's programme and perhaps all the way through.

One who shouldn't be affected either way is Nicole Amy (No2, R2). With a 21121 formline there is no surprise she might be difficult to beat, but she really impressed in winning at Te Rapa last start. The margin was less than one length, but she had at least that much and more to spare in the tank as she went over the line. She stays in the same R80 rating band and with Jason Collett's 1kg claim will carry .5kg less than for her Te Rapa victory. Nicole Amy likes to get off the leaders and storm home and her draw just outside the middle of the line-up should allow her plenty of scope for that. Plenty of opposition.

Netravati (No3) did well to finish third on this track and Pakuranga Hunt Cup day and will greatly appreciate the better surface this time.

This is a jump in class for Javaloushe (No9), but there was plenty to like about her Rotorua win.

One who will be suited by the track is Ginga Dude (No3, R6). He impressed winning narrowly at the Te Awamutu barrier trials despite nearly falling over in the extremely heavy conditions. This surface will be much more to his liking. Ginga Dude is a quality animal and one capable of giving fine mare Boundless (No5) opposition. He does have to concede her 3kg though and that might be important in the closing 100m. Old Sir Slick (No1), rarely one to shine in the spring, was solid in winning at the Te Teko trials on Tuesday and will carry 59kg with Roxanne Rattley's 3kg claim.

Red Tiger's (No9, R1) form has all been in wet ground and he might be at a false price if he comes up as favourite in the first. There is plenty of betting here with Vonusti (No2) rating highly in a fresh state. Tricky race.

John Wheeler has the key to the Great Northern Hurdles, Race 5. High Season (No3) and Governor Bois (No16) rate highly now the track has come back into a reasonable range. Neither are happy in wet conditions and the pointer might be how fit and hard they are, particularly High Season. Some believe he won the Grand National Hurdles under fortuitous circumstances, but it was an extremely sound performance. High Season once again has Brett Scott's fine riding talent and even under 66.5kg he's going to take some beating.

Despite being unhappy in the tough footing, Governor Bois did well to finish second on Pakuranga Hunt Cup day and the improved footing this time puts him right in the race. High Season's greater experience might be the telling factor at the end of what will be a very tough race. The chances to knock the stablemates off are too many and varied - a great contest.

Everyone, or practically everyone, wants Hypnotize (No1, R7) to win the Great Northern for the third time. The drying track will be no help, but he's such an outstanding stayer he will go close. The track conditions aside, he has just about everything else going for him and the last 600m of this race is going to be a heart-stopper. Fair King (No3), third in the race last year, looks the obvious quinella combination.

The Mooseisloose (No2, R10) was only 1.6 lengths away from the winner in a strong line-up in the inter-provincial at New Plymouth last start. He raced a fraction dour for the 1600m that day and the jump to 2100m this time is going to suit perfectly. The track conditions today should race perfectly for him. Stablemate Bounce (No14) is a strong hope and The Jungle Boy (No8) is an improver.

One of the better chances at Wanganui is Matamata filly Te Akau Rose (N2, R6). She can handle a rain-affected track. In the opener at Wanganui, Goodlookin Al (No3, R1) is a good each-way prospect.