KEY POINTS:
If Dorabella shows up in the same form that grabbed her two stakes races a month or so ago she should win today's $120,000 Gasmate Stakes at Te Rapa.
In winning the group one Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham, Dorabella beat the males, but more importantly, Seachange finished three and a quarter lengths behind her in second place.
Against her own sex today and back up to the 1600m Captain Cook distance, Dorabella will take plenty of beating.
Her finish from the tail of the field when she found the 1400m too short in the Breeders Stakes at Ellerslie last start is enough to convince you she can get over the top of this field, despite its class.
Kirra Sand is likely to be further forward in the field than Dorabella and can produce a smart 400m sprint. If she does that she will prove to be the one to catch. Penny Florence, Sarajay and Rosetti Bay are just three of the talented mares that can prove difficult.
Special condition maiden races can sometimes be very clear-cut when a horse on the way to the top stands out. On other occasions they present a nightmare and Race 2 today falls more into the second category. You had to like the way Possum (No2) got to the line to win at Wanganui last start, even allowing for the 4kg claim. She has drawn out a bit today, but if Jason Waddell can get her a decent run in mid-field she could finish off with them. A couple of the 3-year-old fillies are carrying a bit of weight and not claiming.
Accardo (No1, R4) was beaten only a short neck by talented Veloz when having his first New Zealand start since the Melbourne spring carnival and possibly should have won. He finishes off well and will be assisted here by the presence of a number of speed runners. Magic Tryst (No11) is one of those that will be right on the speed, if not in front. The racing pattern on Counties Cup day with its rain-affected track did not suit at all and that effort can be forgotten. She has drawn nicely to take advantage of her natural speed. The draw is a nightmare, but don't dismiss the possibility of Castles Burning getting into the trifecta. Rain on Avondale Cup day did not suit him in the Concorde.
Charliehorse (No4, R5) is one of the most promising gallopers in the country and with one run behind him this campaign should be just about ready to strike. There is plenty of talent on offer here, but he has a nice weight and perfect barrier draw. It was Alonzo (No4) that beat Charliehorse at Tauranga last start and he meets the other horse 1kg worse off this time. Alonzo has remarkable stats for this race - he is 6 from 8 at this 140m distance and has won three of his four starts at Te Rapa. A similar quinella to Tauranga would not surprise. Fiscal Madness (No1) adds some intrigue despite the 58kg and High Octane (No2) has plenty of class.
Classy though he is, it might have been asking a bit much of Sterling Prince (No10, R6) to beat the massively talented Pasta Post at Avondale, but his chances were not aided by being held up around the home bend. He is a promising, emerging type and could get consolation today.
The 6.5kg Kerry O'Reilly (No1, R7) has to give Genuine Offer (No13) in the Waikato Times Gold Cup is a definite worry, but if you simply like backing good old horses that try hard then Kerry is your man. There is evidence to suggest he is in equal best form for the last couple of seasons, evidenced by his close second under 58kg to Spin Around in the Counties Cup last start.
He wasn't entirely happy with the slightly 'off' track that day and had to change direction in the home straight. With his liking for Te Rapa, Kerry O'Reilly will give you a good sight. The finishing sprint Genuine Offer can produce on a decent track is impressive and if she gets rolling quickly in the home straight today, watch out. Just those two promise a great contest, but there are other strong prospects as well, like the gritty Mirkola Lass (No3).
It might have been only a maiden race, but horses don't often win them like Courtney (No1, R8) on this track back in June. She sat wide then ran away in the home straight to score untested by almost eight lengths. There is ability there. She must be reasonably fit to resume otherwise Craig Thornton wouldn't be lining her first-up over 2000m.
Tarbach (No13, R10) has only to produce the dashing finish he found to just miss at Ellerslie last start to go close to winning today.
