KEY POINTS:
Pindy has a couple of good stats in his favour to be a pretty good bet at Te Rapa today. Okay, he hasn't run today's distance of 1600m in Race 5, but everything you know tells you that provided he is given an economical trip he will get the journey. He fights so hard it's difficult to imagine he won't extend from the 1400m.
The main dangers are the ones that may have a problem. Maybe. Belthazar, a natural at the 1400m he won over on the first day last Saturday, has not won at 1600m in two attempts and Black Panther, very talented, has good distance stats, but is dropping back from the 2200m of the Avondale Cup. That may or may not be an impediment, but it won't help. What will help is the small field when he starts running on. Pindy is such a determined on-pace runner he's going to take some running down.
Miss Tuff (No7, R1) possibly got to the front a touch too soon when stepping up from 1600m to 2200m at Ellerslie last start and was run down. Her form suggests she is one decent run away from breaking maidens and she looks a good each-way bet in the first. Mexicana (No1) got beaten by a useful maiden in Bula Baby at Riccarton then missed out narrowly at Avondale a few weeks ago. He has been inexperienced for a 5-year-old and is getting close to breaking through.
The button might have been pressed a little too early on Danske For That (No1, R2) at Matamata last start and he did well to hold on for a close second. That was only his second race start and should have improved him. He steps to 1400m today and that won't be a problem. Matronic (No8) might have been beaten nearly seven lengths on debut at Matamata, but he was eased late by Jason Waddell after clearly coming to the end of his run when making a big run around the field coming up to the home turn. He will have learned something from that.
The inside barrier draw makes it a bit easier for Anissina (No8, R3). She came back from a small break with an unlucky effort when beaten favourite at Avondale on December 8 and looked like she needed only a decent barrier to go close next time. This could be that time. Hokipopter (No9) should be improved for her first-up fifth.
Pasta Post (No4, R4) well, until we find out exactly how good he is - which might be a while - he should simply continue on winning. He's already 5 from 6 and unless something goes seriously wrong, that's a long way from ending. Something needs to be amiss for him to be beaten. The trifecta - the only avenue for value - actually looks like it could be a trap.
Manila (No2, R6) shouldn't be in maidens long. He was beaten a long neck by an apprentice allowance on this track last start and as an inexperienced raceday horse he should be improved by that. He fights hard to the line, which might be the winning of this race. There are a few chances here - Little Luke (No6) will find this easier than the Avondale Guineas after a smart first-up maiden second, Yeah I Did (No1) did well to be less than two lengths from relegated winner Possum in a much stronger field here last week after getting well back in running. The step up to 1600m will help. To be fair, Capistrano Angel (No13) has had a couple of chances to win and couldn't, but she will win a maiden. There is a long run down the back straight at Te Rapa from the 1600m start, but a wide draw (No17) will be no help.
A wide barrier gate (No14) might put a few off Vanny Fair (No4, R7), but that might be a mistake. She is very smart. Her two seconds before a spell were to The Mooseisloose and to her stablemate Martini Red, which would be $1.40 and $1.15 chances to win this. A 2kg apprentice allowance will help with the 58kg and she needs only to get reasonable cover for the first 500m to be difficult to manage.
Askyourself (No1,R8) covered a bit of extra ground when third as beaten favourite at Avondale last start. It might pay to ignore that run and gauge here on the close second to Six O'Clock News at Te Rapa the time before. Mulenski (No7) had to cover some extra ground when a good fifth at Ellerslie last start and could be the value runner here from the No1 gate. Young Zeus (No6, R9) looks a young stayer of promise and should take his opportunity to step up to 2100m here. The wide barrier is going to be no help at all, but if he can get in reasonably well around the first bend he should be right in the finish. Grace (No3) has been unlucky in her last two runs and has been stiff with her barrier draw, but like Young Zeus she needs only a decent passage to play a major role.
The last at Te Rapa is a interesting betting race. Sir Fortriss (No10, R10) showed terrific promise in a couple of starts last preparation. He came back with a solid-finishing seventh at Ellerslie and should be a bit fitter for his second-up effort. He can really power to the finish and that could be very handy here late in the day. Ton Of Bubbles (No12) probably found just the cut in the Ellerslie ground against her last start, even though the official condition was given as good. She put up a good effort to run third and looks well placed here. At Awapuni, Hitchcock (No5, R5) will find this R90 event easier than the Concorde last start. He actually ran a beaut at Avondale, drawing wide, being slow away and making ground late on the leaders. He has always looked smart and from the No4 gate should give this field a shake. Maximum Star (No7) with the blinkers back on and Likenothinelsie (No11), who ran extraordinarily well to win at Trentham, look dangers.
All week the TAB has been unable to separate Kingsinga (No7, R7) and Chettak (No4) at the top of the betting market for the $100,000 Manawatu Cup. It's not difficult to agree with them. Perhaps the difference might be the 1.5kg Kingsinga receives from Chettak, a decent weight pull if they run this along at speed. You can pretty much forget Kingsinga went around in the Avondale Cup. To instructions he was ridden along early and the experiment didn't work. His record on this track is good. Chettak looked just one run away when third on the first day last week.
The sprint, Race 9 is a cracker of a field with the likes of Kristi, Bulginbaah, Cog Hill and a couple of other high profilers. But the value could be Smitten Kitten (No10), who is sharper for her two runs this time back.
