KEY POINTS:
She will attempt something even the mighty Starcraft couldn't achieve.
And at $2.30, most New Zealanders believe Seachange can do it.
To become the first triple crown queen in today's $2 million Kelt Capital Stakes would cement Seachange's place as one of New Zealand's all-time greats as she possibly heads to even more lofty targets.
Starcraft proved how vulnerable horses can be when they step outside their distance comfort zone at this level.
He turned out to be a world-class sprinter even though he had won the 2400m AJC Derby.
Top horses can do that against their own age, but not in weight-for-age company as older horses.
The 2040m stretches Seachange's distance index, but her great class and tenacity helps balance most of that disadvantage.
Seachange's chances will depend on the net effect of probably four different scenarios:
* Has Sir Slick's fitness improved enough since finishing second to Sea- change in the Stoney Bridge Stakes?
* How hard will Seachange be made to work on the bend out of the home straight to get over to almost certainly sit outside Sir Slick, who looks just as certain to lead despite his wide gate?
* How much extra ground will the back-running Princess Coup have to cover to get into the race from the 600m, or will Noel Harris somehow find her a miracle passage through the field closer to the inside rail? If that happens it could be all over.
* Will the track play fair as it did on Stoney Bridge Stakes day but not on Mudgway Partsworld day?
Seachange is going to give this one hell of a shake, but is the $2.30 value? Given the above, probably not.
Perhaps the best value outside the $11 for Sir Slick is $16 for Gaze, who looks almost guaranteed to get the best run in the race. As we saw last year, the best run - not necessarily the best horse - can win the Kelt Capital.
What a great contest. Worthy of its $2 million status.
Governor Bios (No3, R1) has not raced for five weeks and has to run a hard 2000m in the opener today, but he had a good fitness level going into his break and John Wheeler doesn't take half-fit horses to the races. He might be a touch over the odds and looks a solid each-way chance.
Special conditions maiden races are top betting prospects when one class act stands out. That is not the case with Race 2 today.
There are five or six smart types who will share the bulk of the betting. Starcraft's half sister More To Love (No4) didn't beat much when she cleared maidens at Otaki, but the way she did it was impressive, clearing out from the 220m. Blue Grass (No10) showed plenty as a 2-year-old even though he didn't win one and a combination of Noel Harris and an inside barrier makes appeal. Keeperinthemyst (No2) looked good winning here two weeks ago. Look for value here.
Flypass (No1, R3) is probably better than generally considered. It might not have looked like a 'wow' effort when third at New Plymouth last week, but take into account the sectionals winner Veloz clocked and how much extra ground Flypass was required to cover on the home bend to get into the race.
He's backing up three weeks in a row here, but if he can reproduce his second to Bonaichi here two weeks ago he'll just about get home. Miracle Miss (No4) and Vosne Romanee (No8) should be right in it.
If Taatyana (No3, R4) can stay just a touch closer than she usually does she will take beating today. That was a massive first-up effort for a close second at Awapuni, where she was rocketing home. Patrick (No1) is another smart one here and Taatyana will not need to be conceding too much to him coming to the 200m. Good contest this.
There is almost an embarrassment of riches among the 3-year-olds this season, if there could ever be such a thing. We are going to be mentioning Abbey Way (No5, R5) in exclusive circles towards the end of the season and today's $100,000 Golan Hawkes Bay Guineas could be one of the races talked about. Abbey Way has to step way up to take on this race, but he's always looked the goods. He should get the perfect run from his No3 barrier. The ease with which Alamosa (No1) won under 58kg after being five and six wide around the home turn at Taupo when resuming was remarkable. He has clearly come back at least as well as his high profile juvenile season and looks the danger, along with Abbey Way's stablemate Special Mission (No14). El Cuento (No2) was going to be right in this until he drew gate No13. He's going to need a lot of luck.
Race 6 is among the toughest. South Island mare O'Reilly Rose (No3) can't stop winning and co-trainer Peter Williams believes she is up to winning this. The stable rarely travels without being confident. Antipodean (No2) and Prized Punch (No1) are strong chances.
Kay's Awake (No5, R7) has fitness and a liking for Hastings on her side and Wahid (No6) has great class. This could be a trap race. Kay's Awake is a great each-way chance and Wahid might blow them off the track if he's fit enough - and he's looked good in his couple of recent public appearances.
If you had to nominate an improving stayer to follow at the end of last season, chances are it would have been Everswindell (No7, R8). She has had two runs back this time and caught the eye with a close fourth to Mandela over 1600m at Pukekohe last start. The key is the step up to 2040m. She should go close and is worth following.
The Veep (No3) is in great form and Jovial Jock (No10) conceded only late after being taken on in front here to weeks ago.
The last is tricky. Hitchcock (No11, R10) would be clear first pick if he'd drawn inside No7. He has more than a touch of brilliance and if he can cross them he can still win. Makutuwai (No8) is going to win a decent race this preparation. He is not a natural 1200m type, but is fresh and has won at the distance in the same condition. The blowout horse is Fourwinners (No15), who is much better than his form reads. A couple of things he's done have been real eye-catchers and in a fresh state could get home at odds.
