Mike Dillon: Class mare worth risk if enticing odds available

Mike Dillon

There are risks around Culminate in today's $100,000 Travis Stakes at Te Rapa.

Has the highly talented mare come to the end of her campaign after a tough couple of races in Sydney and can she run out the 2000m in her first attempt?

At the $5.50 TAB fixed odds yesterday you'd have to say they're not bad risks to take.

If it comes down just to class, Culminate wins and that's no disrespect to the opposition.

Culminate has on a number of occasions proven she is out of the top drawer, never more so than in the A$600,000 group one Coolmore Classic two starts back when she finished a close second to Typhoon Tracy.

Typhoon Tracy is absolute top class and Culminate stretched her neck, something nothing else in this field could so.

Culminate gets another tick because if the predicted rain gets to any serious level, she is likely to manage the footing better than most of her main rivals.

Veloce Belle, for example, would be inconvenienced on anything but a firm track.

Material Girl is a very strong hope if the track is rain-affected and Spirits Bay can be forgiven her most recent failure.

Fromm (No 12, R1) and Master Guru (No 5) are two recent impressive barrier trials winners on debut over 1200m. Fromm has drawn the better of the pair and might be a real chance in a large field. Both are worth including in all multiple bets.

Heredity (No 4, R2) looked a horse on the way through when he scored his first win at his third start last time. There is a fair step from a Te Aroha maiden to this, but there is a lot to like about this bloke. Alpinista (No 2) finished less than half a length from Mill Duckie last start at Ellerslie - great form for a race like this. His Paeroa maiden win earlier was also stylish.

Miss Caruso (No 4, R3) was just beaten by Mill Vinnie (No 1) at Ellerslie last start and meets that horse 1kg better off this time. That might be enough to switch the result around. Both have drawn nicely so a good contest should be on offer. Haya (No 10), freshened, may not be the worst chance for trifecta punters.

If the rain comes it probably won't affect the fresh-up run from Dude (No 2, R4). He is a classy type at best and has had two barrier trials to fit him for this. Blackhall (No 7) will be improved for its first-up effort and Ininthree (No 8) goes well on the fresh side.

The $85,000 Windsor Park Cambridge Breeders Stakes is an impossible betting race - you can make a case for six or seven runners. Santangelo (No 9, R5) has been beaten only once and that was on a rain-affected track. Does that make her vulnerable here? Geeza (No 3) and Al Qurhah (No 1) will provide top efforts and the likes of Glam Slam (No 10) and Dinka (No 10) are also winning chances, which don't end there. If the track is not too bad perhaps Santangelo each way, but be careful.

Veloz (No 8, R6) can be forgiven his Easter Handicap failure. He's a lot better than that and over 1400m on one of his favourite tracks he will finish a lot closer. He's drawn out a touch further than you would like to see, but he's generally just a fraction slow anyway, so mid-field or wider is probably better than in close. Who Knows (No 2) hasn't raced since January 1 and goes some of his best races when fresh.

Quartz Reef (No 1, R7) and Showcause (No 2) provide a match between one horse that's there and one that's getting there, even though it's only eight starts (Quartz Reef) to five. Quartz Reef finished second in a strong 3-year-old race at Awapuni last start, the same day Showcause won his maiden at Ellerslie. Showcause looked exceptional that day and proved it when he overcame difficulties to win again at Ellerslie last time. This should be a terrific contest.

Mr Tipsy looks an outstanding each-way chance in the Sydney Cup. You can still get $7 (or could yesterday) on our TAB and he is liberally offered at $8 in Australia.

Justa Kinda Magic (No 3, R6) is a smart northern raider attacking Manawatu today. He fair bolted in last start and is a horse heading to the top.

Few trials winner have been as impressive as Sea A Star (No 4, R3) at Awapuni. Expect a winning debut.