KEY POINTS:
Identifying inexperienced horses on an upward plane can be profitable.
Cagney in race four at Te Aroha today fits that mould.
He has come out of what should prove to be one of the best lower-grade form races of the autumn - Bono's winning performance at Ellerslie on March 10. Cagney ran second to the very talented Bono in that event after being back early and checked mid-race.
This is a very useful Rating 76 field, but on his last-start effort Cagney is going to take plenty of stopping from an inside barrier draw. Heracles won nicely at Pukekohe at only his second start and makes trifecta appeal from a similar handy barrier.
The group one $150,000 NZB Breeders' Stakes presents a wonderful betting opportunity - and that's because the race has a wide range of variables. Get the trifecta form on this one right and you'll have a magical day regardless of what else you do.
One of the confusing aspects is that classy 3-year-olds Porotene Gem and Irlanda are right in the market. Traditionally this race has been regarded as best suited to the older mares, but Porotene Gem and Irlanda have strong claims against their older rivals who, in the main, are fractionally down on strength from some years.
Porotene Gem (No16, R7) struck a stone bruise problem after beating Jokers Wild at weight-for-age and it's difficult to assess her two placed comeback runs because she's been lumped with 59kg in each.
Irlanda (No17) may be the safer bet. It wasn't against a field of this strength, but she impressed when she stormed home late to be narrowly beaten at Tauranga two weeks ago when coming back from a short break. That was at 1300m and she is much better placed at the 1600m here, particularly on a roomy track like Te Aroha. Her form against her own age like the hugely talented Princess Coup and Veloce Bella has been first class.
Rosetti Bay (No1) can win. She has won only once from 11 career starts at 1600m but has probably never been in form as good as right now. The way she finished off to win when resuming at Tauranga was stylish.
The field is so even there are very few runners who could win and cause a real surprise. John Sargent's pair Penny Florence (No3) and Sarajay (No5) are probably trifecta musts.
Cape York (No4, R1) at reasonably sound each-way odds is not a bad way to start off the day. He has shown glimpses of useful form from a brief career and being out of a Zabeel mare he should improve as he goes along.
There is probably no such thing as justice in horse racing, but if there was Lebanese Lawn (No5, R2) will win one of her next couple of starts. She has drawn well, likes to lead and Te Aroha, for all its very long home straight, suits front runners.
The problem is Delovely (No10). After a brilliant pacemaking win at Avondale she was carted off the track on the home corner on a dead surface at Te Aroha and did well to finish only 2.5 lengths away in fifth. She could be very smart and if she is better value on the tote than Lebanese Lawn, may be the better prospect.
Waikeepadacash (No5, R5) has a nice race freshness and may throw in a top effort in his first start since January 1. He has looked capable at times and even though this is a strong, and confusing, field he has strong each-way claims.
So does Tachus (No10). He is unbeaten in two runs at Te Aroha and was not suited by the wet track when well beaten at Paeroa last start. He should be fitter for that run.
Millstone (No1, R8), with its 3kg claim, is going to be all the rage here, but don't dismiss Beersheba Knight (No7) after his seventh placing at Pukekohe last weekend. The dead track, well cut up by the last race when he appeared, did not seem to suit and he could throw in a surprise here. Millstone will clearly be difficult to beat and Moss Keen (No5) covered extra ground last start.
The open handicap is like practically all the other races - full of variables. You can forget Young Centaur (No9, R9) went around in the St Leger at Trentham last start - the wet track had him beaten before he started. From the bottom of the handicap he makes a bit of appeal against quite a strong field.
Kingsinga (No2) is better than most of these and Tadan (No6), now that the track looks likely to stay firm, will not be friendless. Valley Chief (No3) is another chance.
Prized Touch (No3, R10) is jumping up a grade, but that may not be enough to stop his progress. He didn't beat much at Tauranga last start, but the way he did it impressed.
