KEY POINTS:
Studies showing that paying for the best bloodlines doesn't guarantee success in racing will hardly shock racehorse breeders in this country.
But don't expect it to change the way the multimillion-dollar breeding industry does business.
The pathway to racing glory is littered with tales of $1 million horses who couldn't beat your grandmother to the mailbox, but there is much more to breeding racehorses than the final product winning races.
Many of the horses bred in this country will not be raced by the breeders, they will sold before they race, usually at the yearling sales.
And at the sales, breeding is king, followed by conformation (the way a horse is put together).
The people who head to Karaka to shell out an average of $125,000 for a baby horse every year are rarely the sort who are struggling to pay the mortgage. Most are successful, established types hoping to buy some excitement for their money.
Sure, they could pay $20,000 for a cheap horse by a less commercial sire and maybe win a few races locally. But most of them are aiming for the life-changing grand prizes - the Melbourne Cup, the AJC Derby, the Golden Slipper. Win those races and the $100,000 you pay for a stud fee to Zabeel becomes a joke.
The sort of people who buy at Karaka or the Sydney Easter sales want equine Ferraris and, while many of them don't know a great deal about breeding, they all know Zabeel has sired three Melbourne Cup winners.
They want to be standing in that winner's circle drinking the champagne, they want their face in every newspaper in Australasia.
So they will always take the $100,000 or even $1 million lottery ticket. For excitement, for fun and, in some cases, for their egos.
Some will reach the pinnacle and have the story of a lifetime, most will crash but be back the next year. After all, there is nothing the rich love more than the challenge of trying to control something they can't control.
And in an industry of uncertainties one thing is for sure: buying the best bred horse in the sale will not guarantee success, but buying the worst-bred will almost certainly lead to failure.
