KEY POINTS:
If they ran tomorrow's A$2.5 million ($3 million) Caulfield Cup in lanes New Zealand mare Princess Coup would be an awful lot shorter than the $18 you can currently get in Australia.
The $2 million Kelt Capital winner has been unbackable since drawing barrier No19 on Wednesday.
The
$10 she shortened into once it was announced she would definitely be heading to Melbourne, now looks woefully short of the prices being offered.
Even the New Zealand TAB, with a reasonable liability on Princess Coup, had her a generous $13 yesterday.
"We can't lay her for one dollar since the barrier draw," says Domebet's Brian Taylor from Melbourne.
"We had her at $17 this morning with no action and we've had to push her to $18 to see if that will attract anyone."
The wide gate is certainly not ideal, but it may not be a great hindrance.
In fact, it may not even end up being a factor because Princess Coup is a natural back runner.
What may be more important is the fact the race is being run at Caulfield.
If this race was at Flemington you would be happy to take half the odds on offer about Princess Coup.
Back runners at Caulfield are almost always dictated to in terms of when they start their finishing drive by the horses on the speed.
You take off when the leaders sprint or you get left behind. At Flemington, riders can make their own arrangements about when to begin sprinting home.
It will mean first-time rider Glen Boss will almost certainly have to pull wide to get around those in front when the dash comes at around the 600m, where it almost always does in Caulfield Cups.
You can sometimes over-analyse these types of races and occasionally it is as well to leave it to the factor that as much as anything decides most horses races - sheer class.
Mark Walker is a champion trainer, Glen Boss a champion international group one jockey and Princess Coup a class, determined act who has not let the team down yet when put in a race she can win. It will surprise if this is the first time.
As unbackable Princess Coup is because no one seems to think she can overcome her draw, the favourite Maldivian is equally unbackable because his odds are too short.
Maldivian is officially at $2.40 both here and in Australia, something that reflects the fact that bookmakers have fielded the horse at long odds in early Caulfield Cup markets as much as it does the horse's actual chances.
"We bet as much as $80 about the horse when the books first opened," says Domebet's Brian Taylor.
"We're at $2.20, simply because we don't want any more money on him, but the best you can get around the traps is still only $2.40."
Maldivian drew gate No1 at Wednesday's barrier draw. The last horse to win the Caulfield Cup from the inside gate was Velocity in 1941.
Rider Kerrin McEvoy, back in Australia from Europe for the spring carnival, was less worried about historical statistics than the reality of perhaps finding himself boxed in on the inside of runners from the draw.
"I'm certainly not excited about it," said McEvoy, but trainer Tony Kavanagh, whose stable is currently on fire, said he was not even considering the barrier a factor.
In search of an angle, journalists have made comparisons in Australia between Maldivian and the champion stayer of the 1990s, Might And Power, who won his Caulfield Cup by seven and a half lengths.
Both are front-running sons of Zabeel, but comparisons are premature.
Eskimo Queen and team Moroney have a gigantic chance to lift the Cup.
Like Princess Coup, the 51kg is a major plus in a race that will be run strongly and where weight is likely to be an issue.
Her recent form has been in less suitable races and her preparation has always been aimed at this race.
At $7 Eskimo Queen has been kept safe on both sides of the Tasman.
The TAB's Thad Taylor says he is surprised about the level of support for Mandela, even though he is at $26.
"I know he finished close up in the Kelt, but the interest in him has surprised me," he said.
