KEY POINTS:
Today at Ellerslie could be one of those programmes when you seek value.
The middle day of the New Zealand Herald's Ellerslie Christmas Carnival is not a day for the guns - like Boxing Day and January 1 - but a day for those looking to become one of the guns.
And there are a couple of promising types engaged that just might get a rung or two up the ladder in the next month or so.
Alluring (No 12, R6) is one of them. The well-bred Volksraad filly has a 354 formline, but she's better than that and might prove it today. Last start over the same course and distance she impressed by finishing off strongly, despite not getting the best of runs. Alluring should be getting better for the experience for trainers Belinda and Kerry Verner and from a nice barrier today can go close to winning. Steel (No 1) is a chance and Sea Jazz (No 5) is not the worst. He was off the track the entire race from a wide gate last start and before that caught the eye with a nice fourth to Wednesday's Guineas runner-up, IL Divo.
Although two lengths from the winner, Montjee (No 1, R1) impressed with his finishing effort when resuming from a break at Matamata last start. He made up stacks of ground and strikes a substandard field here. What beats him should win. Otaitai Jack (No 2) might appreciate the distance.
Align To Infinity (No 4, R2) was given a break after his third to Grand Dancer on his home track at Ruakaka in August. A couple of weeks earlier he had impressed when third on debut to Martini Red on the same track. He is a big bloke who should have benefited from the time he has been given. Anassina (No 9) was dead stiff last start.
Mr Shanghai (No 8, R3) has always looked something special. He went amiss a year ago after looking a world-beater when winning at Woodville and showed he has come back beautifully by winning at last week's Cambridge barrier trials. He won't get it all his own way though - Magic Tryst (No 3) will set up a tough pace and Cagney (No 5) is underrated.
Most of the best ones in Race 4 have drawn off the track at the difficult 1200m start, making it a nightmare race to predict. One approach is to simply take the inside barriers and on that score Dan Ho (No 3) has some claims. It was not the worst effort when resuming and from the No 1 gate he might get the runs the others will only dream about. Laurette (No 4) is getting close to another win. Trudy Tee (No 2) is the best horse in the race, but she has some work to do from No 14.
Tabulate (No 10, R5) looked a stayer in the making when second over 1400m here a couple of meetings back. He steps up to 1600m this time, which will suit and he looks good each-way value today. Italienne (No 14) will make it tough for him after her terrific fourth to Possum in the special conditions maiden at Te Rapa a couple of weeks back. She copped no favours that day and was beaten only one length. This looks a nice race for her and she's well drawn.
Far Too Much (No 1, R7)) wasn't disgraced being beaten by a smart one in Sterling Prince at Te Rapa. He has the 58kg to carry again, but in the R90 class he seems capable of lumping it. Lady Cavalier (No 5) got clobbered when looking likely to run on in the Gasmate Stakes. She still finished only two lengths from winner Sarajay with a career-best performance. The No 1 gate might be important here. Anden (No 9) made ground nicely from last to be only 2.5 lengths off Hagar over 1400m on this track a couple of weeks ago and should be better suited here to the 1600m.
It was a nice finishing effort from Jack Attack (No 2, R8) over 1320m on debut at Wanganui. He looks a promising staying type for John Sargent and should be ideally suited to the 1600m this time. Manqar Qaim (No 6) and Nazabeel (No 7) have done enough at the trials to suggest promising debuts.
Chief Braveheart (No 2, R9) has been knocking and gets his chance to score his second win in what seems to be a pretty even sort of field. Italic (No 3) is never far away in these races. Difficult race.
You can probably forget Irish Colleen (No 7, R10) went around behind relegated winner Possum at Te Rapa. She missed getting a clear run in the final stages and will do something better here. Double Tee (No 2) is better than his last start effort.
