KEY POINTS:
Indikator has not raced at Tauranga, which is about the only negative you can find around his chances in the $35,000 Zest 2000 this afternoon.
That is if you are game enough to take the chance on smart 3-year-olds Keep The Message and Chartreuse.
The advantage Indikator has over Keep The Message is 1.5kg.
On a track that is very heavy the barrier draws - No4 for Indikator and No15 for Keep The Message - are unlikely to be of the same significance they would be on a firmer surface.
Indikator has not raced in the heavy stuff but is unbeaten in three starts in slow conditions, and it would be a major surprise if track conditions were the reason for defeat today.
None of those wins were more impressive that his last-start 3.25-lengths victory at Trentham. The opposition that day was not as strong as today's field, but he looked to have lengths he hadn't used.
The 59kg Keep The Message will carry is tough, but he is classy and game. Chartreuse will love the switch back to heavy footing. She is unbeaten in three runs in those conditions.
Norville Prince (No2, R1) will attempt to enliven the memory of another fine grey hurdler after whom today's race is named - Cretan. The one most likely to stand in his way is Blake's Boy (No1). He hasn't run since August, but it will be a surprise if he's not a threat. Norville Prince failed last time in the Waikato Hurdles but had been super impressive winning on the first day at Te Rapa. Gisborne trainer Joanne Moss will view this race differently from everyone else. She used to train Blake's Boy, who is now with Craig Thornton, and she prepares Norville Prince, originally with the Collett/Hapeta stable then with his former owner.
It took a brave effort by Ngahiiti to narrowly keep out War Eagle (No2, R2) at Te Rapa last start. War Eagle meets some pretty useful maidens again this time, but he is due a win and the real hard fitness he has on his side will be handy in the last 200m today. Stablemates Danzahorse (No4) and Danzatiger (No7) are real prospects. Danzahorse conceded late at Te Rapa last start and might be better dropping back from 1600m to 1400m this time.
In keeping with the terrific stakemoney on offer today the fields are great betting vehicles. Spare The Detail (No7, R3) could be some value. In April she had two starts back from a spell but did not strike her favourite wet conditions and was eased. She returns today and will be greatly suited by the track. She showed excellent form in the wet last winter and will be tough to keep out today. Dead Common (No4) and Our Mavoureen (No6) are another pair that like wet ground. Like Spare The Detail, they had form around some smart types last winter.
Highweights are not ideal for 3-year-old fillies, but Ebony Strange (No15, R4) and Carib (No14) are nearly 4 and in form. Ebony Strange had her Ellerslie win last Saturday taken off her for running around late, but it was a smart effort. Carib didn't beat much in the maiden highweight at New Plymouth, but did well.
Anton (No9, R6) is really smart. He failed when well supported at Ellerslie last start but might have temporarily had the edge taken off him by a monstrous first-up second at Te Rapa, which followed a long stretch away from the racetrack. He gets back so the wide gate is not an issue and if they are swinging wide and storming home by this stage of the programme he will be suited.
The Cup is a nice interesting race. One certain fact is that the loose footing will suit Sable (No11, R7), who has lately battled tracks that have been a touch good for her. Watch for her and Allan Peard to be storming at them late. Twinkling (No5), despite the wide gate, is in the best form of her career and with Balmuse pushing the weights down from the top, she is well off at 53.5kg for a mare who has won her last two. Don't leave Nordic Dancer (No9) out of your trifecta and the local Aquila Carrera (No15) is jumping way up in class, but is showing real promise.
Forgive Ascot Isle (No2, R9) her two failures since coming back from a year break - trainer Karen McQuade says the mare was probably slightly flattened by a dashing barrier trial and her first run at Rotorua. McQuade is delighted with the way the mare has done since a mini break and expects her to produce her best today. The filly Electrostatic (No12) deserves a winning break and should be suited to this race and Abit Rusty (No1) finally gets the conditions she probably prefers.
Whodat Cugat (No7, R10) has to step up a fair way from maiden class, but there was something special about that breakthrough victory at Wanganui. Given she had shown stakes potential earlier in the season, that win was no surprise. She tends to get back in running and will need to get a drag into the race coming up to the home turn, but that is likely to be the way the track is racing late in the day. Ka Ching (No3) is smart and Tuscaloosa (No6) at last gets the wet conditions he's been looking for.
