KEY POINTS:
New Zealand racing may have dodged the Equine Influenza bullet but the real war is just starting.
No horses have been imported from Australia for 10 days and we have no reported cases of EI in the country.
With the virus having such a short incubation period equine health authorities - not know for their optimism - are even starting to admit Equine Influenza is not here. Yet.
And with all horse importation banned it is unlikely to get here any time soon.
Not carried by a horse anyway.
But for the racing industry, EI's threat isn't simply one of sick horses and the money they cost their connections.
As of last Saturday a new enemy has entered our midst - fear.
Fear that horses travelling to Australia could contract EI and the far greater fear they could bring it back to New Zealand.
With EI never having threatened our shores before, we have a naive equine population, meaning the virus could spread like wildfire, especially in a country as small as New Zealand with horse-dense areas like Matamata and Cambridge.
While the virus may be still contained in a few states of Australia it is now a fact of life for the Australian racing and associated equine industries.
Even when these cases clear up there are likely to be more and that will raise calls for quarantine restrictions on horses travelling between the two countries.
And that is when the real cost of an EI crisis comes for New Zealand owners and trainers.
As much as New Zealand racing's finances have been greatly boosted by tax changes and the internationalisation of our product, the bottom line is without Australia we have very few serious money targets for our best horses.
Sure, the $2 million Kelt Capital Stakes is awesome but if you have a top galloper - the next Xcellent or Darci Brahma - Australia is the pot of the gold at the end of a three-hour flight.
Before last weekend it was easier to race a northern-based horse in Sydney than Christchurch. Not cheaper, but easier.
That could all change.
If the same quarantine protocols that exist between other EI-infected countries and New Zealand are put in place between Australia and New Zealand the result would be a disaster for local trainers and owners.
The days of winning a race at Ellerslie or Alexandra Park and then jumping on a flight the following week to tackle the Metropolitan Handicap or Miracle Mile will be gone.
Normal quarantine protocols involve three weeks in confinement in your host country before travel and two weeks quarantine upon arrival in the next country.
That may be economically feasible for a horse being aimed at the $5.75 million Melbourne Cup, but out of the question for horses on the next rung.
Maybe EI won't become endemic in Australia and quarantine rules won't have to be implemented to cross the Tasman.
If we can dodge that bullet then the racing industry really will have backed a winner.
