In the night’s signature race, the $1 million Karaka Million two-year-old, To Bravery Born drew barrier 2 while key rival Too Sweet drew 15 and will start from 14 after the emergency comes out.
That saw To Bravery Born move from $4 to $3.20 with the TAB while Too Sweet drifted from $4.50 to $6 but was soon after backed into $4.60.
In a touch irony the Karaka Million juvenile has actually been won three times from the extreme outside barrier (14) and only twice from barrier 2 so while all logic and the market would suggest To Bravery Born fared better than Too Sweet, history suggests it may not pan out that way.
But, as much as we all like to believe in fairytales, logic would suggest the closer you draw to the inside rail the less ground you should have to cover.
The most important word there is: should.
So who were the winners, and possible losers, as much as you can possibly tell out of the draw for Saturday night’s six monster races at Ellerslie?
Race 1, $250,000 Cambridge Stud Almanzor Trophy:
Winners: One of the easiest races to access the benefits of the draw because Poetic Champion gets barrier 1, which has convinced his connections to start in this instead of the Railway. A naturally fast horse his draw has to help.
The returning Move To Strike should be suited by barrier 6.
Losers: Kitty Flash drawing 14 isn’t a lot of fun for the high class filly while Hankee Alpha also draws wide but gets back anyway.
Race 2, $1 million Elsdon Park Aotearoa Classic:
Winners: Orchestral is probably suited by barrier 3, allowing her to not get all the way back to last even without trying while Mary Shan won’t know herself from barrier 1 and might finally get a nice trip. Witz End is one of the few with natural early speed drawn well.
Losers: New Years Day winners Bourbon Empress (12) and Frostfair (14) have both copped it.
Race 3, $600,000 Westbury Classic:
Winners: Skew Wiff the big winner getting barrier 2 as she doesn’t like working and has a short sprint. Acquarello ideally suited by barrier 4 with her early speed while Aussie mare Konasana gets barrier 3 dropping back in distance.
Losers: None of the favoured brigade have had their chances enormously impacted by the draw because defending champ Belclare is so tough she will probably roll forward and sit outside the leader even from barrier 9, with Town Cryer (gate 10) following her across.
But still, a couple of barriers closer in would have helped them both.
Race 4, $1 million TAB Karaka Millions 2-Y-O:
Winners: To Bravery Born (see above) at first glance looks ideally placed while Toretto gets the ace after some tricky recent draws and IF he begins smoothly gets options.
Barrier 5 will give La Dorado every chance.
Losers: Too Sweet can still win but if she beats them from barrier 14 she is clearly the best horse in the field, while Romanoff could have really done without drawing the carpark.
Race 5, $1.5 million TAB Karaka Millions 3-Y-O:
Winners: In a race where plenty of the favs drew poorly, Tuxedo didn’t. He gets barrier 2 and likes to race handy.
He will also have 15-20 owners on track all dressed in tuxedos, including the women, which may be some sort of world first for a race meeting.
(Note, the Herald has absolutely no proof that would be a world record but it sounds possible).
Losers: Obviously favourite Damask Rose’s connections really weren’t hoping for barrier 12. That is helped a bit by it being a smaller then usual field but she is still going to have to come wide in race with potential traffic concerns.
Race 6, $700,000 Sistema Railway:
Winners: Babylon Berlin (2) gets the barrier draw she needs and that could give Crocetti (1) an easy trail.
But that might all depend on how Alabama Lass begins from gate 7 because she might still cross them so we will put her draw in the winner’s column for now even though it could just as easily prove to be sticky.
Losers: Captured By Love is a super talented filly but barrier 11, which has become 10 after Poetic Champion’s scratching, is brutal taking on the older horses for the first time.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s racing editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
