The final word from coaches and players ahead of the All Blacks and Ireland quarter-final showdown at Stade de France in Paris. Video / Rugby World Cup Limited via SNTV
Trainer Andrew Forsman assures punters they don’t need to fear two of racing’s most unwanted words alongside hot favourite Mustang Valley before today’s $450,000 Livamol Classic at Hastings.
The Group 1 is the domestic highlight of one of the great days on the racing calendar, with the A$20 million Everest in Sydney, Caulfield Guineas in Melbourne and even a $100,000 Group 3 race at Ashburton.
Mustang Valley finds herself in the rare position of being a hot favourite for the Livamol, even though she has never won a race on a good or even soft track, and Hastings is expected to come up a good4 this morning.
She is the defending Livamol champion, bolted away with the Arrowfield Stakes on the same track two weeks ago and has drawn perfectly at barrier 4 with premiership-leading jockey Joe Doyle on board.
But punters looking to pick holes in her credentials could get stuck on her lack of dry track form and the fact bar plate shoes go on her front hooves today.
Bar plates provide more stability for the hoof and cover the back side of it, and many professional punters hate backing horses with them, as they take their application as a sign of hoof issues.
Mustang Valley is the hot favourite for the Livamol. Photo / Supplied
But Forsman says Mustang Valley is usually in the footwear by this stage of her campaign and they won’t affect her chances today.
“It won’t be an issue, it’s nothing new for her and she has raced well in them before,” says Forsman.
“She is very well and obviously hasn’t needed to do too much since she last raced, so she’s very fit.
“She would be a better winning chance on a heavy track because it might slow some of the others up but she has gone some good races on better tracks.
“I think she can still win and she’s better performed than many of them but the horse we don’t know where the ceiling is for is Pearl of Alsace.”
The latter has been handled with kid gloves this spring to peak for today, and if she does and cops the step up to 2040m, she looks the logical danger, with the in-form Ladies Man and proven weight-for-age stars Defibrillate and Callsign Mav the two other major chances, both at each way value.
Attention will quickly turn from the Livamol to the huge meetings at Randwick and Caulfield, and in particular I Wish I Win in the A$20m Everest in Sydney.
He will be the first genuine Kiwi representative in the most Australian of races, and if they ran the race in lanes with no traffic concerns, I Wish I Win would probably win.
Either way, the campaign to promote him and the race by new TAB bosses Entain is seen as a success in promoting racing and creating goodwill towards the new betting entity.
Without doubt, more Kiwis will be buying in to the Everest today than the other runnings in its short history.
Racing’s mega day
1: Hastings, first race 12.20pm, $450,000 Livamol Classic.
2: Ashburton, first race 11.30am, $100,000 Barneswood Farm Stakes.
3: Randwick, first race 2.30pm NZ time, A$20 million Everest.
4: Caulfield, first race 2.15pm NZ time, A$3 million Caulfield Guineas.
What to watch out for on Livamol Day
Weather: Track conditions will be crucial. If it rains and the track gets back to soft or heavy, Mustang Valley should win the feature; a better track will produce more winning chances.
Rail position: The rail stays in the same spot 3m out as it did for the Arrowfield Stakes meeting two weeks ago, which could mean the inside ground is cut up and horses come wider as the meeting progresses.
Three-year-olds: Every decent 3-year-old race now has implications for the Group 1 Guineas races at Riccarton, and today is no different. If Molly Bloom, in particular, can win the opener today, she could move into clear favouritism for the 1000 Guineas. The Irish (no, not the rugby team): Irish jockey Joe Doyle is a surprise leader of the New Zealand premiership, with a winner every 5.1 rides. He has Mustang Valley, Channel Surfer, Molly Bloom and a host of other winning chances today.
The locals: They may not have many superstars but Hawke’s Bay trainers thrive at their local carnival because, quite simply, their horses don’t have to travel. They won two races on the first day and two on the second, with an average winning dividend of more than $13.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
