“If he has barrier one, it would be bad for him but from out there he will get the clear air he needs, because he is such a big horse.
“If we can be outside the leader and choose when to try and get away on Desert Lightning, we will get our chance.
“I am not saying we will beat Desert Lightning because he is a very good horse but if we don’t, it won’t be because of the draw.”
Patterson is the reigning king of New Zealand strike-rate trainers with a winner every 3.9 starts and he has had a breakout black-type season with six major wins. Already his team have won more money this season than his previous two best seasons added together.
And he has a secret for punters as to why Puntura may be able to add tomorrow’s Group 1 to his last-start win in the Thorndon Mile.
“Ōtaki is a funny track because they irrigate it quite a bit and it holds the water so I think it will have more give in it than a lot of the summer tracks have,” he said.
“I race there a lot and win a lot of races there [one in every four starters] and I find it has genuine give in it and they often get to the middle of the track in the home straight.
“So those things give me confidence we can beat Desert Lightning.”
If Patterson is right then Puntura can win, but if the track plays even and firm then Desert Lightning has to be the one to beat with the inside running and two mammoth mile victories at the highest level in his last two starts.
Add in Aegon, who trainer Andrew Forsman says is ready to go, La Crique and the much-improved El Vencedor and the race should be both tactical and fun.
Patterson’s strike rate makes his words a sweet elixir in the ears of punters and he has a surprise when assessing his team for tomorrow.
He loves the chances of The Underbelly (R5, No 4) as he says the big horse will jump, relax and relish the 2300m of the St Leger Trial.
“He is exactly where he needs to be and I don’t think they will beat him.”
So where is the surprise? Coming right up.
“But for all his chances and Puntura, I think my best chance of a win at the whole meeting is The Hottie in the last race.
“She meets a couple of smart ones on Allan Sharrock’s but she is flying and think she is my best bet.”
The Hottie clashes with stunning last-start winner Alexandra Quick, who got up to win after looking tailed off over 1200m at Trentham last start and who should appreciate the step up to 1400m.
But whether Ōtaki lends itself to such mid-race sluggishness will be the concern for punters.
Kiwis in Australia
Some big-name New Zealand-trained horses of both codes chase big targets in Australia on Saturday. Here is the timeline for their races (all New Zealand time):
1: Caulfield, 5.05pm: Campionessa takes on two Melbourne Cup winners over 1800m. Favourite from barrier one.
2: Caulfield, 6.55pm: Skew Wiff fresh up in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate from barrier two. Rated an $18 chance.
3: Menangle, 10.42pm: (Its) Merlin makes his Australian debut in a A$50,000 ($53,000) prelude to next week’s Chariots Of Fire. He is the $2.10 favourite from barrier seven.
4: Menangle, 11.17pm: Don’t Stop Dreaming, which is qualified for the Chariots, has a lead-up race against older pacers over 2300m. Drawn outside of the front line he is a favourite.
