By Mike Dillon
Nahayan is lucky Yangtze River has had to be scratched from today's $250,000 New Zealand Oaks at Trentham.
And not because she was the biggest danger to the super smart Takanini filly.
Yangtze River's latest form suggests she would be the one of the first to apply sustained pressure to Nahayan in the home straight at Trentham and that is something rider Peter Johnson will try to avoid for as long as possible.
If Nahayan is in the same condition as she was for her last start in the Derby, almost certainly the only thing that can beat her is her latest tendency to run erratically in the closing stages.
It is pressure that brings that erratic factor into play.
The less pressure applied to Nahayan in the home straight - and that means in numbers of fillies as well as at which point - the later rider Peter Johnson will have to press the afterburner button.
Which means the closer she will be to the winning post before the running around becomes a factor.
Savannah Success will race handy and doubtless apply pressure early in the home straight.
Unlike Nahayan she has yet to prove she will successfully see out 2400m, but she certainly showed a ton of courage in the three-way fight at the end of the 2000m Royal Stakes at Ellerslie last start.
Nahayan is a nightmare for punters, but you get the impression she will have to do a whole lot wrong to beat herself today.
The best value trifecta runner is Pretty Wicked, who has done a couple of things to help get herself beaten this campaign, but is a genuine staying filly who will love the 2400m and this roomy track is what she has been waiting for.
* Hard to get enthusiastic about the Telegraph as a punting race. There is probably not going to be much between three or four of them.
Railway winner Bawalaksana (No5) is nicely placed on 52kg from barrier No5, Trans Siberia (No2) will be much better suited here than in the Railway where he copped a severe check, and Vain Ana (No12) and Bahnhof Zoo (No9) are the lightweights.
Hero's chances depend on whether you believe he can give away weight like 6kg to Bawalaksana and even 3kg to Trans Siberia. Certainly he is tough enough, but he has got to come back from 1600m to do it. It will be a huge effort if he wins and there is no doubt he can.
* Sustaad (No1, R3) has not raced for 14 months, but Roydon Bergerson knows how to get them ready to win first up.
She is all class and even with 58kg she might have too much sheer ability for her lighter-weighted opposition. Any overnight rain would only help her chances.
Limerick (No3) and Jolly Rodger (No4) provide an interest-ing puzzle in the first. Jolly Rodger looked terrific coming from last for third behind Centre Crest in an exceptionally fast weight-for-age 1200m when resuming last start.
He will benefit from the step to 1400m, but if there is a niggling worry it is that he probably needs 1600m to show his best.
Much the same might be said for Limerick, a staying mare who looked sharp winning at 1400m fresh up, but Noel Eales will have had to keep her similarly fresh for the same distance here.
Limerick was very impressive at Hastings though and as much time as I've got for Jolly Rodger, I am going to lean Limerick's way with a quinella as a saver.
* Super Century (No9, R4) could be a value prospect. He has had only the one start this season, back in November but won fresh up as a 4-year-old last season and gave the impression he would be a better horse with time.
Guided Missile (No3, R5) will find his own age group a lot easier than the King's Plate at Ellerslie last start, won in fast time by Hero.
He was only four lengths from Hero and with previous sound form appeals as an each-way prospect here. Life Of Riley (No1) and Lady Tee (No14) appeal for the trifecta.
* Our handicappers are so ordinary at the moment you would take your life in you hands in the Wellington Cup Trial and a better betting prospect is the Anniversary Handicap.
Surface (No8) took a while to wind up when winning at Hastings and while this is tougher, Noel Eales will have him sharper.
Fatal (No 4) is only a little bloke unable to carry big weights and the 54kg is the best weight he has had in a while. He could be the value runner.
Last night the Ellerslie track was easy at 3.1 and even if there is significant drying there should be a bit of give in the surface. That will suit veteran Legal Regal (No1, R9).
Horse Racing: Nahayan to straighten out
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