By Michael Guerin
OK, these Interdominion Grand Finals are never easy to work out so let's concentrate on what we know.
This much is certain. The Pacing Grand Final will be held at Alexandra Park, around about 9.40pm. It will be won by a very tired horse who will beat 11 other very tired horses because 3200m from behind the mobile is an awfully long way.
Unfortunately none of those facts help us back a winner.
So what else do we know?
Well, we know Anvil Vance can't win. He was scratched yesterday. And Happy Asset can't win because he won't get a start. That leaves 12.
Now for the things we almost certainly know. It is pretty fair to assume that to win a Grand Final a horse has to have at least won a serious open class race before. I mean, this isn't a good place to be earning your wings.
If we can accept that, we are left with Brabham, Iraklis, Kate's First, Sir Vancelot, Surprise Package, Adio Routine, Franco Hat Trick, Quantum Lobell and Bogan Fella.
They have all won group one open class races. So its goodbye and no disrespect to Masterclass, Breeny's Fella (the Victoria Cup consolation is not a serious race) and Ritchi.
It is also fair to want the horse you back tonight to have at least won a decent race this season. Somewhere, anywhere.
In that case we are down to Brabham, Iraklis, Sir Vancelot, Adio Routine and Bogan Fella.
Surprise Package, Quantum Lobell, Franco Hat Trick and Kate's First have all gone close in decent races this term but their wins don't come very often these days.
Sure, Kate's First will love the 3200m mobile tonight but rules are rules Katey, so we will have to love you and leave you.
All righty then. What else do we know?
How about this Adio Routine. She is right in the zone at the moment and has a bigtime driver. She will sit on the markers, do nothing, and should get a crack at them because the field will break up.
But she won in the weakest of the heats. She is a wonderful mare whose best form has been against other wonderful mares. And she is unproven on the Grand Circuit. She just misses the cut.
So then there were four.
Okay. Brabham is next. What do we actually know about Brabham?
Well, we know he has been a significantly better pacer since Mark Purdon started swimming him. We know he has a stunning sprint when saved for one run, which he will be here with the passing lane as an ally. He will be trained to the minute and he was a touch unlucky in the heats.
But we also know that he has only once run a really hard 3200m, in a weak Auckland Cup 15 months ago. Brabham has a lot of natural talents but running 3200m is not one of them. He'll be in the finish but I don't think he is the winner.
So now we have the big three.
Iraklis and Sir Vancelot are sort of in the same boat.
We know they are both great horses who have had difficult seasons, the best barometer of which is the Miracle Mile.
Iraklis won that great race in 1996 and Sir Vancelot in 1997 but they got their heads kicked in by Christian Cullen in the super sprint this season. You get the feeling they have been treading water to keep their reputations as superstars afloat ever since.
Both of them used to be explosions on four legs, now they tend to outstay their rivals.
Neither Iraklis nor Sir Vancelot win Grand Circuit races coming from behind anymore because they are not as sharp as they used to be.
So the connections of both stallions know the best place for them tonight is in front and that causes a problem because two horses can't be in the same space at once.
This a 3200m mobile, which is like a 3500m stand, and any drop of excess energy they spend in an early speed duel will cost them double at the end of this highway to hell.
Back to what we know. If either Iraklis or Sir Vancelot can get the front easily and control the race they should win. But they could be each others worst enemy and I doubt either can work hard and hold on.
Which leaves us with Bogan Fella.
What exactly do we know about Bogan Fella? Well, for a start he didn't deserve a name like that. I mean, what were they thinking?
That aside, we know Bogan Fella is a natural 3200m horse - he ran second to that Christian Cullen horse in a punishing Auckland Cup.
We know Bogan Fella does not have, and never will have, the speed of Iraklis or Sir Vancelot. But he does not have their scars either. His younger legs are not as tired.
He looked disappointing when only fifth last Friday but incredibly may have been a run short.
He will not be a run short tonight. He could follow the pace and from there he only needs the right cart into the race to steal the greatest harness racing prize of them all.
When history recalls the great pacers of all time Bogan Fella won't be among them. But tonight he might be the right horse, with the right trainer-driver, on the right track over the right distance at the right time.
And he may be at the right price.
Horse Racing: Let's start with what we know
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.