Since 2008 there have, quite rightly, been no handicaps in the New Zealand Cup, meaning like the Olympics or a Cox Plate, the best can return again and again.
It is no coincidence that since 1999 there have been five multiple winners of the Cox Plate, Winx winning it four times.
Both are fair but brutal fights, proper last-horse-standing stuff.
And so it will be today.
The searing 3200m around Addington gets most horses out of their comfort zone with a lap to go, and out of contention soon after.
Plenty will keep going – standardbreds rarely shirk a task – but few will have the lung capacity or ability to sprint when history demands a price only the special horses can pay.
That is what New Zealand’s beaten-up pacing pride needs today, a horse who has both the physical gifts and mental toughness to either outstay or outsprint Swayzee and, to a lesser degree, Better Eclipse and Aroda.
Swayzee is a sledgehammer of a horse and if the rival New Zealand drivers let him bully them like last season by rolling to the front in the middle stages they will most likely get what they deserve.
But there are two local warriors who have both the speed and stamina to beat him – if they want it badly enough. And if they can reach a new career high today.
One is Merlin.
He used to be fast and flashy, but now he is also a brute. Brute helps in the Cup.
His Hall of Fame trainer Bary Purdon says Merlin is ready, in that zone where the good stallions go looking for walls to run through.
“He is in a great space and all we want now is no bad luck. We couldn’t have him any better,” says Purdon.
Purdon and training partner Scott Phelan will leave Merlin’s tactics and importantly, that decision of whether to hand any potential lead away to Swayzee, to driver Zachary Butcher.
Merlin might be one of only two horses in this Cup who could win either leading or trailing.
The other is Don’t Stop Dreaming, our other great hoppled hope, trained by Purdon’s brother Mark and Mark’s son Nathan.
Don’t Stop Dreaming isn’t as handsome and maybe not as fast as Merlin. He was last year but Merlin has developed more and won more.
But Don’t Stop Dreaming has always had that X-factor of a horse who can win a New Zealand Cup. That mix of speed and sheer will wrapped in Purdon polish.
Don’t Stop Dreaming has the manners to use his handy draw and has looked a horse on the improve in both runs this campaign. There is a sense of timing about him.
These days Purdon lives in Matamata, the eight-time Cup-winning trainer nowhere as hands-on as he used to be.
But he was on Saturday, when he drove Don’t Stop Dreaming in his final pre-Cup workout.
Afterwards, he uttered five words to Don’t Stop Dreaming’s driver today, Blair Orange.
“That’s good enough for me,” he told Orange.
“And he said it with that cheeky smile Mark does when he is feeling good about a horse,” says Orange, the smile now contagious.
This year Swayzee and his Aussie mates will need to fight off two very good local horses who have the training legends to help them become great.
The industry’s damaged pacing pride couldn’t be in better hands.
New Zealand Cup Day draw
What: New Zealand’s biggest turnover domestic race day.
Where: Addington, Christchurch.
When: Today’s first race 12.08pm
Highlights: $1m New Zealand Trotting Cup (actually for pacers), $400,000 Renwick Farms Dominion Trot, $200,000 Woodlands Stud Sires’ Stakes, $200,000 Nevele R. Fillies Final.
How to watch: Trackside coverage starts from 11am.
The punt: Fixed odds, head to head and Same Race Multi every race, $100,000 guaranteed Quaddie R9-12.
Today’s Addington multi-makers
1.) Should win No 1: Just Believe (R7, No 2) is a champion Australian trotter and super stayer. So he is your multi anchor.
2.) Should win No 2: Duchess Megxit (R5, No 9) is very fast and high class. Tricky barrier but should be able to work to the lead.
3.) Home-track advantage: Marketplace (R9, No 8) meets an untapped northerner in Captain Sampson (1) but the home track thing is real, especially for young horses.
4.) Traffic concerns: The Lazarus Effect (R6, No 16): Looks very sharp and good trial last week. Biggest issue could be the big field and his second-line draw.
5.) Stable split bet: Tu Tangata (R1, No.5) and Forgiveness (No 12) are both trained by the master Paul Nairn and are paying enough you can back them both. If Forgiveness brings her manners she can win at $8.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
