With two-time defending champion Copy That sidelined with injury and Self Assured having been lacklustre all spring, it is increasingly hard to expect any pacer in New Zealand to beat Akuta in the Cup.
Maybe the horse who can isn’t in New Zealand yet.
Swayzee has exploded onto the Australian harness scene like a muscular equine comet whose trajectory is Addington, a collision course with Akuta.
Swayzee dropped out to finish last in a A$6200 battlers’ race at Redcliffe in April, but soon after, he changed trainers to Jason Grimson and has won eight races in a row, including beating the horse some Australians were calling the best in the world, Leap To Fame.
On Sunday, this new beast that is Swayzee led and won a A$50,000 free-for-all at Menangle like he owned the place, rating a brutal 1m 52.3s for the 2400m mobile, and superstar young driver Cam Hart says he could have gone a lot faster.
“Having been to Addington last year, we know how big a deal the NZ Cup is and how good the horses are,” says Hart. “But he is the perfect horse for it, he can win it.”
There are pieces of this NZ Cup puzzle still to fit into place. Swayzee has to make it to New Zealand and horses such as Republican Party and BD Joe weren’t among the vanquished over the past 48 hours, so add depth.
And both Akuta and Swayzee have at least some questions over their ability to begin quickly, maybe even safely, from the Cup’s 3200m standing start point.
But the market for the great race tells the story, Akuta rated $1.90 and Swayzee into $3.20. Old Town Road is $6 but could be $10 on Cup Day without having done a thing wrong.
One of the most deciding factors in not only who wins the NZ Cup but even what prices punters will eventually be asked to take will be the barrier draw announced next Wednesday.
Swayzee is a natural unforgiving front runner, but if he has to start from the second line (about a 33 per cent chance of happening), he could blow out to $5, as his chances of being an automatic leader reduce.
Swap that scenario and put Akuta on the second line with Swayzee on the front line, and the pair could get awfully close in the market, although most of Akuta’s optimum performances have come when settling back early.
But with this Australian monster at the castle gates seeking the pacing crown that undoubtedly now sits atop Akuta’s head, his connections will be seeking any advantage they can over Swayzee.
An intriguing fortnight awaits.
New Zealand Cup day
●What: One of New Zealand’s biggest racedays.
●Where: Addington, Christchurch.
●When: November 14.
●Highlight: The $750,000 IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup.
●Who: Transtasman superstars Akuta v New South Wales giant improver Swayzee.
●Money matters: TAB bookies have Akuta at $1.90 to to win, Swayzee at $3.20.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
