By Mike Dillon
The only puzzle more confusing than why some people are mesmerised by politicians is what can win Friday's $350,000 Auckland Cup.
After Saturday's $100,000 Queen Elizabeth Handicap the short answer might be that nothing can win it.
That is not possible, so where do you head?
The Blue Star Auckland Cup is supposed to be New Zealand's most glamorous race.
If the Queen Elizabeth was any guide, that is misplaced this year.
I know we said the same last year and eventual winner Jezabeel went on to win the Melbourne Cup and runner-up Aerosmith started third favourite in the same race after beating the lead-up weight-for-age fields.
You can only hope the same thing happens this time, but it is hard to see what might do it.
Pre-post favourite to this point, Crimson, looked like she would be more at home at the Pirongia non-tote meeting when she finished a well beaten eighth in the Queen Elizabeth.
But was she a victim of circumstance? Will the Queen Elizabeth prove to be no Cup guide at all?
While it doesn't entirely excuse her, Crimson was not helped by the racing pattern on Saturday, which saw a fierce bias against back runners. Only Juggins in the main sprint came from outside the first five on the home turn to win.
The Queen Elizabeth was a walk to the 1400m then a dashing sprint home, and half a length was the most any horse could make from its position on the home turn.
Crimson's rider Damien Oliver acknowledged the bias watching the television replay.
"Still, you'd liked to have seen her running on just a bit," he said.
Nearby in the jockeys room sat Grant Cooksley, visiting from Australia, but vastly experienced at the Ellerslie summer carnival when based here.
"It's a long time since the Queen Elizabeth has been a guide to the Cup," said Cooksley, who rarely volunteers much.
Oliver claimed the bias was accentuated by the strong tailwind down the home straight.
"The leaders are getting a roll-on once they round the home turn and you can't pick them up."
It might be a risk, but I'm giving Crimson the benefit of the doubt.
If you do not, the Queen Elizabeth makes no sense at all and while she can beat herself at times, you know she has more class than most of the Cup runners.
Trainer Jim Gibbs climbed on Crimson's back yesterday morning for a rare but important appraisal and could find nothing amiss with the class mare.
"She feels terrific," he said.
More terrific than those who have backed her into pre-raceday favouritism.
Scud gets ready
On Saturday Graeme Rogerson put his chances of getting Scud fit enough for the Auckland Cup at 90 per cent.
Yesterday he stepped it up to 95 per cent.
Australian-trained Scud bruised a foot, ruling him out of the Queen Elizabeth, which could have proved fatal heading into a 3200m group one race.
Rogerson is giving the Eric Watson-owned half brother to Might And Power a workload from hell in fitness catch-up.
"He did two half hour periods on the walking machine and followed up with six rounds of the swimming pool.
"This afternoon he did it all again."
As much as he would love to give Scud another race, Rogerson will not risk the bruised foot in today's $22,500 Nathans Memorial at Ellerslie.
"I'll gallop him in the morning instead."
Rogerson knows Scud is at least six months away from his best form, but he is not impressed with the opposition Scud will meet in the Auckland Cup, particularly after watching the Queen Elizabeth.
"If I can get him 98 per cent fit, he'll give them some swish."
The Underdogs
If you have put the pencil through Crimson you have to look at the likes of the underrated Mulqueen, Dannevegas, who turned in a eye-catching run although only 10th in the Kings Plate, dare we say it Jimineate, whose Queen Elizabeth run was useful and even the likes of Irish Chance, who is racing like a dead-set 3200m horse.
The Cup is certainly going to be a good betting race.
You might be able to clear your mortgage with a winning trifecta.
Horse Racing: Cup puzzle becomes more confusing
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