Merlin is so brilliant and bold over shorter trips you can see how he may not quite enjoy the bare-knuckle brawl of a NZ Cup at Addington. But an Alexandra Park 3200m is more forgiving than the NZ Cup, by far our most brutal race.
Merlin is a two-time Derby winner and they often go on to win Cups. The last time he raced over 2700m at home he smashed his opposition in the Holmes D G, rating a fast 1:58 and pacing his last 800m in 54.2 seconds, suggesting he can still sprint at the end of a staying race.
Perhaps more importantly there is no NZ Cup winner Swayzee in tonight’s Cup and if Merlin can work forward to the lead there also looks to be no real pressure, not the sort that would turn this 3200m in a 3:54 lung burner.
If he gets a nice sit handy or leads and gets one easy 800m sectionals this should be Merlin’s Cup to lose.
“We are happy with him, we took him to Pukekohe for a day out the other morning and he worked great,” says co-trainer Scott Phelan.
“I’d say he would be as good now as when he won the Holmes D G. I am not saying he is better, but at least as good.”
Don’t Stop Dreaming’s question marks aren’t over his staying ability but more his winning record, or lack thereof, in 2024.
He has only won three of his 16 starts this year. Two of them were at Menangle, the other a free-for-all at Alexandra Park and he has found ways to lose races a horse of his reputation should win.
Even co-trainer Mark Purdon says Don’t Stop Dreaming’s desire has come into question at times and he was pleased rather than thrilled with his fast work last Friday morning.
“We all know how good he is but it is up to him to step up and prove it now,” says Purdon.
Don’t Stop Dreaming’s best chance of doing that may be driven cold and swooping but that strategy rarely pays Auckland Cup dividends.
Better Eclipse has already proven he can win an Auckland Cup so his question is whether he can win a stronger one, as well as the standing start, which driver Greg Sugars admits is a coin flip.
Last start Invercargill Cup winner Republican Party should the fittest of the favourites and his New Zealand Cup third has boosted his stocks.
His 17 wins from 45 starts is not the usual record of a true modern-day Auckland Cup winner but he has more ticks than crosses in the “reasons he can win” column.
Jolimont looks like the only other serious winning chance but his question is whether this Cup comes six or even 12 months too soon.
The answer is probably yes because New Zealand’s two great 3200m Cups are rarely the races a horse arrives in, more the ones that confirm a crown.
A crown Merlin looks more likely to be wearing than his rivals by 7.30pm tonight.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
