“So her plan is 1800m this week into the Avondale Guineas at 2100[m] in three weeks and then, all going well, the 2400m of the Derby two weeks after that.”
That Forsman, a trainer with a great Derby pedigree, thinks Hinekaha can win the classic is the best indication of how highly he rates her and with tomorrow’s second favourite Myakkabelle scratched, it looks Hinekaha’s race to lose.
The one concern for those taking even-money odds or those who love to speed-map races is Hinekaha has drawn barrier 1 and has yet to show any early speed in her races, dropping back to last in her latest two before storming home.
Forsman is not concerned.
“She is very relaxed but she has also been ridden that way because of the way the races have panned out,” he explains.
“I will be happy to see Craig [Grylls, jockey] be more aggressive out of the gate this week and when she trialled, she actually showed some early speed so I think it will be there.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if she was able to kick up and even hold the trail, without having looked at what her rivals may do.”
If Hinekaha is sitting in the trail in this field and gets a clear run from the 400m mark, she should win.
Forsman also has a satellite stable in Melbourne and has Mr Mojo Risin’ returning from there to contest race four tomorrow.
“He will win a nice race here somewhere and has to be a chance this week.”
The Cambridge horseman has representatives at the Ellerslie meeting including Moonlight Magic (R4, No 7) in the open staying event, where she looks beautifully placed.
The stable have last-start Gingernuts Salver (2100m) winner Mustang Morgan (R8, No 1) dropping back to 1600m as the next step toward the New Zealand Derby, which Forsman is looking set to have a strong hand in.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.