They could be, and maybe would even win, but give a horse a headache fresh-up and you often have a lesser horse in the months ahead.
So the conservative approach was taken with both Marketplace and Republican Party last Friday and while both sets of connections stated pre-race they would be looking to drive their stars with one run, they still started favourite.
Horses starting new campaigns charging home late when allowed to settle back are nothing new in either equine code and with such tactics telegraphed, and often even expected, it is a case of bettor beware.
But with the pipe-openers out of the way tonight punters can expect some more aggression on the big guns tonight.
Marketplace has looked a bit special for the last six months and he will undoubtedly head forward from barrier four tonight, with trainer Regan Todd suggesting last Friday’s sit-and-sprint had brought him on both fitness-wise and mentally.
His task has been made enormously more comfortable by main rival Rubira being scratched on Wednesday and it is hard to see Marketplace beaten.
Republican Party could face a more complicated road to the winner’s circle in the free-for-all after drawing the outside of the front line and trainer Cran Dalgety says son Carter, who drives the Auckland Cup winner, has two options.
“He can pull back and end up behind all the other big-name horses or he can work forward and get in front of them,” says Dalgety.
“I am not saying he has to try to lead but I don’t see the point in pulling back behind the horses you are most worried about.”
Dalgety says Republican Party’s storming late run from last has also tightened him up so he is the horse to beat in a tricky field as you could make a case he is the best pacer in New Zealand right now.
Punters should expect improvement though from Chase A Dream (No 1), who badly needed the run last Friday while Don’t Stop Dreaming will be rock-hard fit in his first start for new trainer Hayden and Amanda Cullen but is one of the most difficult horses in New Zealand to predict.
The Cullens also hold a strong hand in the Fillies Harness Million with Winelight (R5, No 1) and Arafura (2) drawn well but Stella Rouge still deserves to be clear favourite.
She jogged her last 400m when beating older horses last Friday and has genuine x-factor and the hindquarters that produce a good horse’s acceleration.
“She has turned into a stunning filly,” says driver Tim Williams.
“She has the looks and the ability to match it and she felt great last week.
“I am happy with barrier five because she doesn’t have to lead to win and she is one of the fastest horses I have driven.”
