Of course it shouldn’t be this hard. The Karaka Million 3-Year-Old was run on this track over a distance 100m shorter, just six weeks ago.
Damask Rose won that like the very good filly she is and can clearly win tomorrow.
But as a form guide? Useless.
Remarkably, none of the 12 horses who finished behind her that day are in the NZB Kiwi tomorrow, although three are in the Derby.
But the New Zealand 1000 and 2000 Guineas should be decent form guides right, Group 1s to start summer and over a comparable 1600m?
Um, no. None of the 11 fillies who ran in the 1000 Guineas at Riccarton in November will start in the NZB Kiwi, while Domain Ace is the only starter from the 2000 Guineas in the Kiwi and he is the rank outsider.
So where do we go? What race gives us the best formula to put into our punting brains in the hope of spitting out the winner of the first running of this NZB Kiwi?
The answer is last Saturday’s Australian Guineas.
In case you missed it Feroce, who – in a touch of irony –was eligible for the NZB Kiwi, stayed home and beat our Savaglee, who also could have been at Ellerslie tomorrow but for stallion-making reasons went to Flemington.
The Savaglee team made the right call to go but even not being here his form is the key to the Kiwi.
If Savaglee was starting tomorrow, he would be clearly the best winning chance of the locals and probably second favourite.
The only local viewed as having his raw class might be Damask Rose, but even that is doubtful.
Savaglee went down fighting to Feroce in that Guineas last Saturday and two horses with form all around Feroce have turned up here from Australia: Evaporate and Public Attention.
Feroce contested the Caulfield Guineas in the spring and in both the Prelude and Guineas he finished alongside Public Attention (Prelude) and Evaporate (Guineas).
He looks to have improved since then but their form suggests both Evaporate (moreso) but also Public Attention are in Feroce’s class.
Last Saturday showed Feroce is at least as good if not better than Savaglee and we already know that this season, Savaglee has been better than the other locals in tomorrow’s race. Add to that Evaporate’s huge last start fourth to Mr Brightside and Public Attention running not far off Broadsiding in Sydney last start and it is looking likely this Kiwi could be flying back to Australia on Sunday.
So which Australian, of course bred here, should you be on?
The answer is Evaporate.
He has the better overall record, slightly superior form lines, a better draw and looked at home at Ellerslie on Monday morning.
By just about every metric, he is the horse to beat tomorrow.
Public Attention would be shorter in the market from a good barrier and he has the tactical speed to still go forward from barrier 14 but it clearly won’t help.
Which brings us to Perfumist.
She doesn’t have that meaty Australian Group 1 form but she has a perfect draw, Bjorn Baker training in career-best form and she can get up against the rail and cut out sub-even sectionals to tax those travelling wider.
That makes her a beautiful each-way play.
Of the locals, Damask Rose is an obvious winning chance and class act, while Sethito and Checkmate are uptapped and have at least been set for this Grand Final, whereas others may not have been.
So do this: imagine that Savaglee is in tomorrow’s race and ask yourself what horses do you have any evidence could beat him?
The answers: Evaporate, Public Attention, Damask Rose (she did last year). With the outlier being Perfumist.
That narrows it down. The rest comes down to price, draws and tempo but Evaporate is still the most likely winner.
Barfoot and Thompson Champion’s Day
What: New Zealand’s richest-ever race meeting worth $9 million.
Where: Ellerslie Racecourse.
When: Saturday, first race 12.15pm.
Highlights: First running of the $3.5 million slot race NZB Kiwi, $1.25 million Trackside NZ Derby, $1 million Bonecrusher NZ Stakes, $600,000 World Pool HKJC NZ Breeders Stakes, $550,000 Sistema Stakes, $600,000 Barfoot And Thompson Auckland Cup, $250,000 Haunui Farm Kings Plate.
Can I go? Yes, but most tickets are sold. Availability online.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
